What would I do if a dime in Vegas? What if . What if I were sitting in the Bellagio in Las Vegas with $1,000 to bet? How would I move the money? Well, the first thing I’d do in the Bellagio would be to observe Matt Damon spying on Julia Roberts in the filming of Oceans 11 and then I’d be on the lookout for Carl Reiner posing as a shady Russian arms dealer. But let’s say I got past all that and made my way to the sportsbook?
Answering that question is what this section of TheSportsNotebook is about. The thesis is that I had a $1,000 at the start of the 2012 NCAA Tournament, and it must last until the beginning of March Madness next year. Below is the step-by-step process of how I’m blowing a hypothetical grand. The first section shows the profit-loss margin on bets already settled. The next section is Daily Action, which is a running tally this month of how I’m doing day-to-day, and the final section is unresolved futures bets.
STARTING BANKROLL: $1,000 (March 11, 2012)
NCAA Tournament: Lost $45
Kentucky Derby: Lost $32, Belmont Stakes: Lost $26.75, no bet on Preakness
NHL Playoff Futures: Won $7
NBA Playoff Futures: Lost $15.25
MLB Home Run Derby: Lost $10.00
April Daily Action: Won $12.90
May Daily Action: Lost $11.55
June Daily Action: Lost $0.70
Bankroll Left: $604.00
JULY DAILY ACTION
July 14: I’m getting buried left and right, and am going into hiding until football season.
July 13: Going to open the second half with a focus on sides. Tomorrow we go all totals. If my bankroll dips below $600 by Sunday, I’m shutting down until football season. This hypothetical bankroll has to last me until the start of March Madness. $1 apiece on the underdogs, for the favorites go a $1 plus the increment they are favored by (i.e,, -125 favorite has a $1.25 bet to bring back a buck per win).
Favorites: Arizona (-125), ChiCubs, Miami (-120) Washington, Milwaukee (-135) Pittsburgh, Philly (-145) Colorado, LA Dodgers (-180) San Diego, San Francisco (-220) Houston, Toronto (-125) Cleveland, Minnesota (-135) Oakland, Texas (-135) Seattle
Underdogs: St. Louis (+110) Cincinnati, NY Mets (+145) Atlanta, Detroit (+100) Baltimore, KC (+105) ChiSox
July 9: Going to step in on the Home Run Derby with $10 on Jose Bautista at (+350). I won’t have a play on the All-Star Game itself, so this is it until games resume on Friday.
Result: Bautista loses in final.
July 8: Going to make sure I go into the All-Star break on a good note so I’m taking today off.
July 7: Nursing my wounds today after the worst night of the year, at least in terms of overall record. Today I’ll shift gears and pick all 14 games with the side, rather than the total. If it’s an underdog, assume the bet is a dollar. For a favorite, bet a dollar, plus the increment they are favored by (i.e., a -125 favorite gets a bet of $1.25). For those not familiar with the run-line favorites, it’s a case where you take the favorite, but concede a one-run win as a betting loss for the sake of a more favorable moneyline.
Favorites: NY Mets (-145) ChiCubs, Philly (-105) Atlanta, Cincy (-110) San Diego, Detroit (-155) Kansas City, ChiSox (-135) Toronto, Tampa (-105) Cleveland, Oakland (-140) Seattle
Underdogs: San Francisco (+110) over Pittsburgh, Houston (+140) Milwaukee, Miami (+130) St. Louis
Run-Line Favorites: Washington (+105) Colorado, Arizona (+130) LA Dodgers, Texas (+105) Minnesota, LA Angels (+130) Baltimore
Results: 8-6, +$2.55….Run-Line Games (3-1, +$2.65), Underdogs (1-2, -$0.60), Favorites (4-3, +$0.50)
July 6: Okay here we go for a Totals extravaganza, with 14 plays at a $1 apiece
Overs: Rockies/Nats (Over 7.5), Brewers/Astros (Over 8.5), Marlins/Cards (Over 9.5), Reds/Padres (Over 7), Rangers/Twins (Over 10.5), Orioles/Angels (Over 8.5)
Unders: Braves/Phils (Under 9), Giants/Pirates (Under 8.5), Cubs/Mets (Under 7.5), Dodgers/DBacks (Under 7.5), Rays/Indians (Under 9). Royals/Tigers (Under 9.5), Jays/White Sox (Under 9), Mariners/A’s (Under 7).
Results: 4-10 (Lost $7.00)
July 5: Took a beating yesterday, but still ahead of the game in July. Taking today off and come back strong for the weekend series’ starting tomorrow.
July 4: A big day yesterday so I have to keep playing the hot hand. $1 apiece on the following plays, all on the Over…
Cubs/Braves (9), Rockies/Cards (9), Orioles/Mariners (8), Rangers/White Sox (10)
Results: 0-4 (Lost $4.40)
July 3: I generally like the Unders in baseball, but the pattern of Overs having success is pretty apparent. I’m going to go only Overs on Tuesday’s games, with $1 on these plays…
Miami/Milwaukee (9), San Francisco/Washington (7.5), Houston/Pittsburgh (7.5), Philadelphia/NY Mets (8), ChiCubs/Atlanta (9), Colorado/St. Louis (9.5), San Diego/Arizona (9), Cincinnati/LA Dodgers (6.5), LA Angels/Cleveland (9), Minnesota/Detroit (10.5), Kansas City/Toronto (10.5), Texas/ChiSox (9), Baltimore/Seattle (6.5)
Results: 10-3 (Won $6.70)
July 2: Baseball totals are a dollar apiece. I was looking for more Overs today with the hot weather, but apparently I’m not the only one, because I thought the numbers were kind of high…
Overs: Rockies/Cards (9), Reds/Dodgers (7), Orioles/Mariners (7)
Unders; Astros/Pirates (7.5), Cubs/Braves (8), Marlins/Brewers (8), Padres/D-Backs (9), Angels/Indians (8.5), Royals/Jays (9.5), Twins/Tigers (9.5)
Results: 6-4 (Won $1.60)
No plays for Sunday, July 1. Will be traveling and not have a chance to look at things.
JULY NET: (-$5.00), also lost $10 on Home Run Derby which is noted above.
BASEBALL FUTURES BETS (4/4, 6 PM ET)
*On the all heart theory, let’s go $10 apiece on three separate bets for the Red Sox to win the AL East, AL pennant, and World Series. The respective odds are 9-4, 5-1 and 10-1
*The bet I like the most is to heavy up on Atlanta, Washington and Miami ALL to win the NL East. The odds for each team are 4-1, 4-1 and 13-2 respectively. The logic is simple–I’m betting against the Phils and ruling out the Mets and the price on three teams I consider playoff contenders is strong enough that as long as one of them wins I make a profit. So let’s go $75 apiece on each team.
*I’m also going $50 on the Minnesota Twins (Over 73.5) for their win total.
Total Money In Flux: $205
NFL FUTURES BETS
Win Props (5/28): $5 apiece on Redskins (Over 6.5), Bears (Over 8.5), Jets (Over 8.5), Bengals (Over 7.5), Chiefs (Over 8) and Saints (Under 10)
Total Money In Flux: $30