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		<title>MLB Coverage: Atlanta Widens Their Lead</title>
		<link>http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/mlb-coverage-atlanta-widens-their-lead/</link>
		<comments>http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/mlb-coverage-atlanta-widens-their-lead/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 00:33:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Flaherty</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured Commentaries:]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Atlanta Braves playoff chances]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[B.J. Upton Braves]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fredi Freeman Braves]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Upton Braves]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/?p=7735</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The Atlanta Braves came blazing out of the gate in April, starting to take a step back in the first part of May, and now have re-asserted themselves atop the NL East with a six-game win streak. With a record of 28-18, the Braves lead the Washington Nationals by 4 ½ games coming into Thursday’s action. The National League installment of this week’s MLB coverage will take a deeper look at what’s making this club tick and whether they can keep on ticking.</p><p>The post <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/mlb-coverage-atlanta-widens-their-lead/">MLB Coverage: Atlanta Widens Their Lead</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com">The Sports Notebook</a>.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Atlanta Braves came blazing out of the gate in April, starting to take a step back in the first part of May, and now have re-asserted themselves atop the NL East with a six-game win streak. With a record of 28-18, the Braves lead the Washington Nationals by 4 ½ games coming into Thursday’s action. The National League installment of this week’s <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/mlb-coverage/"><b>MLB coverage</b></a> will take a deeper look at what’s making this club tick and whether they can keep on ticking.</p>
<p>Here’s the story of the Atlanta Braves in Cliff’s Notes…</p>
<p>*Power is carrying the offense to an unhealthy degree<br />
*The bullpen is undergoing a lot of changes, but handling them well<br />
*Starting pitching has been fine so far, but remains a concern</p>
<p align="center"><b>BULLPEN CHANGEOVER</b></p>
<p>Atlanta has consistently had good bullpens in recent years, but season-ending injuries to Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty have forced manager Fredi Gonzalez to revamp his relief corps and the early results are positive. Gonzalez has turned to Cory Gearrin, Luis Avilan and Anthony Varvaro to get high quality innings, and Craig Kimbrel is still holding down the ninth inning. Kimbrel does have three blown saves, after spending the better part of two seasons as absolutely unhittable. But if the setup core continues to be solid, Kimbrel will continue to get plenty of chances and the odds are he’ll get back in gear.</p>
<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/sports-history/"><img class="alignright" title="Sports History Books" alt="" src="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/DanBanner3a.jpg" width="240" height="180" /></a></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong>The relief pitching ranks 3<sup>rd</sup> in the National League, but getting to them is the bigger challenge. Atlanta’s starting pitching was a question mark when the season began, as Brandon Beachy was still on the DL and the team relied on aging Tim Hudson for too much. Beachy will start a rehab stint tomorrow, and Hudson’s 4.98 ERA in ten starts shows how much Atlanta’s staff needs reinforcements.</p>
<p>Kris Medlen rescued the rotation in the second half of last season when he was literally unbeatable until a loss in the wild-card game. Medlen has come down to earth—he’s pitching well, with a 3.02 ERA, but the breaks haven’t been there and his record is 1-5. Paul Maholm is at 3.38, but has slowed down after a hot start. In fact, slowing down after a hot start is the theme of the Braves’ rotation and the reason why, after running 1-2 with St. Louis in National League ERA, Atlanta is now fifth. The season-long numbers are still good, but the trend is concerning.</p>
<p>Gonzalez has seen young pitchers Mike Minor and Julio Teheran pitch pretty well so far. Minor is 5-2 with a 2.78 ERA, while Teheran’s 3.99 in eight starts is fine for a fifth starter. Both are pitchers whose development as major leaguers has been a long time coming. If they’re fine over the long haul, Atlanta will be too, but I’d like to hold off a few more weeks before really buying in.</p>
<p align="center">A TOP-HEAVY OFFENSE</p>
<p>Justin Upton has been “all that”, after his acquisition from Arizona Diamondbacks. Upton has hit 14 home runs, has a .390 on-base percentage and has lifted this offense to sixth in the National League in runs scored. He’s gotten considerable help from third baseman Chris Johnson, liberated from Houston and posting a .386 on-base percentage/.500 slugging percentage.</p>
<p>It’s the rest of the lineup that doesn’t get on base consistently enough. B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla have been atrocious, hitting sub-.200, Jason Heyward has been a big disappointment and shortstop Andrelton Simmons has been all glove and no bat. Over the long haul, the organization can live with Simmons being a defensive standout, but the other three players all need to hit, and produce more than mediocrity—although right now, frankly, mediocrity would be a step up for all three.</p>
<p>Atlanta got an unlikely boost from Evan Gattis, the catcher who stepped in for an injured Brian McCann and hit 10 home runs. McCann is now back and off t a solid .383/.500 start in his first twelve games off the disabled list, but having Gattis as an insurance policy helps a lot. As does knowing that first baseman Fredi Freeman will likely hit for more power than he’s shown so far.</p>
<p>But more power isn’t what this offense needs, with due respect to Home Improvement’s Tim Taylor. Atlanta is in the bottom half of the National League when it comes to getting men on base. The Braves need baserunners and B.J. Upton is the most logical candidate to at least start fixing the problem.</p>
<p>I like the Braves. I like the way they handled their 2011 collapse—unlike Boston, the Braves didn’t throw people under the bus and turn the entire offseason and all of 2012 into a big soap opera. Atlanta calmly went back to work and got back into the playoffs. I think they got robbed in last year’s wild-card game on a hideous infield fly rule call that killed a rally in the eighth inning against St. Louis. I like that Atlanta hasn’t stuck out their chest the way Washington has in the NL East.</p>
<p>So it’s not with any sort of malice that I say, in spite of this team’s recent win streak, I’m not buying on them as the best team in the NL East and probably not even as a playoff team. I’m just not sold on the starting pitching, I’ve never been a believer in B.J. Upton and there are too many other good teams in the National League to beat out. I don’t think the Braves are as good as the Nats, and in the wild-card picture, I don’t think there as good as the Cardinals/Reds runner-up, nor whomever comes in second in the NL West. Atlanta’s a good team and a winning team, but I still see them as maybe the sixth or seventh best in the National League overall.</p>
<p align="center"><b>AROUND THE NATIONAL LEAGUE</b></p>
<p>St. Louis, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati have really separated themselves from the rest of the NL Central. Milwaukee’s slump now has them a full 11.5 games back and more in a race with Chicago than with any of the leaders. In fact, at this point, we have to ask if it’s wrong to say the Brewers are in a slump—maybe they just aren’t any good.</p>
<p>The National League West is really getting tight. Arizona, San Francisco and Colorado are all tied for first coming into Thursday, and don’t look now, but San Diego keeps creeping on up. The Padres are within 4 ½ games, and for all the rumors flying around Los Angeles and Don Mattingly’s job situation, the Dodgers are only six out. It’s also worth noting that it would be almost impossible for the Dodgers to end up fifth in the National League in on-base percentage, yet 14<sup>th</sup> in runs scored, for an entire season. That’s what they’ve managed to pull off so far.</p>
<script src="http://connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js#xfbml=1"></script><fb:like href="http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thesportsnotebook.com%2F2013%2F05%2Fmlb-coverage-atlanta-widens-their-lead%2F" send="true" width="450" show_faces="true" font=""></fb:like><p>The post <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/mlb-coverage-atlanta-widens-their-lead/">MLB Coverage: Atlanta Widens Their Lead</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com">The Sports Notebook</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>MLB Coverage: Francona Rides High In Cleveland</title>
		<link>http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/mlb-coverage-francona-rides-high-in-cleveland/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 21:51:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Flaherty</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Santana Indians]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Terry Francona Fenway return]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/?p=7732</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Terry Francona makes his return to Fenway Park tonight in a spirit of triumph. The former Red Sox manager, now with the Cleveland Indians, will bring a first-place club to town for a four-game series. The Tribe is 26-19, and a half-game up on Detroit in the American League Central. Today’s MLB coverage will break down how the Indians are doing it, and ask whether Francona’s triumphant return is just a May thing.</p><p>The post <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/mlb-coverage-francona-rides-high-in-cleveland/">MLB Coverage: Francona Rides High In Cleveland</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com">The Sports Notebook</a>.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Terry Francona makes his return to Fenway Park tonight in a spirit of triumph. The former Red Sox manager, now with the Cleveland Indians, will bring a first-place club to town for a four-game series. The Tribe is 26-19, and a half-game up on Detroit in the American League Central. Today’s <a title="MLB coverage" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/mlb-coverage/"><b>MLB coverage</b></a> will break down how the Indians are doing it, and ask whether Francona’s triumphant return is just a May thing.</p>
<p>The Cleveland Indians summarized, are as follows…</p>
<ul>
<li>The offense is excellent and it’s realistic to think it will keep on being so</li>
<li>The bullpen is pretty good and can do even better</li>
<li>The starting pitching situation might tempt Francona to call ESPN and see if Curt Schilling will come out of the pregame studios and pitch again.</li>
</ul>
<p align="center"><b>OFFENSIVE FIREWORKS ON LAKE ERIE</b></p>
<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/sports-history/"><img class="alignright" title="Sports History Books" alt="" src="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/DanBanner3a.jpg" width="240" height="180" /></a></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong>Cleveland is tied for third in the American League in runs scored, and it’s thanks to power. The team ranks first in the AL in slugging percentage, while placing a solid third in on-base percentage. Carlos Santana has turned into the hitter all the scouts thought he could be. The catcher has a stat line of .405 OBP/.556 slugging, impressive for anyone and even more valuable at a position where offense is at a premium. His .296 batting average is sustainable, and the fact he can add a 100-plus points on to his OBP with walks tells you something good about his plate discipline.</p>
<p>Michael Bourn was a late free-agent pickup to play centerfield and his play in Cleveland has not answered the mystery of why so many teams let him sit on the market. Bourn’s .357 OBP is par for the course, and with a .451 slugging, he’s contributing respectable power. Nick Swisher is another player who was not nearly valued enough by the market given his consistent contributions on both facets of offensive production. Swisher has a .382/.493 stat line.</p>
<p>The long-term concern with this offense is the number of players who have high slugging percentages, but are not as effective at getting on base. We would look at second baseman Jason Kipnis, third baseman Mike Aviles, and designated hitter Mark Reynolds as the examples. Hitting for power is more fickle than anything in baseball, and this trio will need to show they won’t be a drag on the lineup with the ball isn’t going out of the park or into the alleys. Hence, why I’m more concerned about these three players than with Michael Brantley, whose OBP is high, but slugging is slow. I think the latter is likely to sustain itself.</p>
<p>Even allowing for that concern, there are counterbalancing factors that can make up for a slump. The biggest one is Asdrubal Cabrera. Normally one of the better hitting shortstops in the American League, Cabrera is struggling at .313/.435. His fourteen doubles have kept the slugging at least respectable, but he can do better in all facets of his offensive game and the track record suggests he will. It’s also reasonable to expect Kipnis’ OBP to improve.</p>
<p>Whether the Indians will continue to be third in the American League in scoring runs, I don’t know, but it’s not overly optimistic to think they will at least be in the league’s upper crust all year.</p>
<p align="center"><b>PITCHING MORE PROBLEMATIC</b></p>
<p>We’ll start with the good news and that’s Justin Masterson. The kid who came into the majors under Francona in Boston during the 2008-09 seasons before being traded, is coming into his own under his old skipper. Masterson is 7-2 with a 2.83 ERA and averaging seven innings a start. He was named to the May edition of TheSportsNotebook’s <a title="MLB coverage" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/mlb-coverage-an-early-american-league-all-star-ballot/"><strong>American League All-Star team</strong></a>, something I’m sure constitutes career fulfillment for any player.</p>
<p>Masterson has gotten help from Zach McAllister, who’s posted a 2.65 ERA in eight starts. But he’s where the good news, at least in the starting rotation, stops.</p>
<p>Ubaldo Jiminez is struggling with a 6.04 ERA in eight starts. At what point does everyone just acknowledge that Jiminez was insanely good for the first half of the 2010 season and has done nothing since? And that maybe the ’10 first half was the anomaly, not all the mediocrity that’s followed? Francona is trying to fill out the rest of his rotation by recycling Scott Kazmir, and turning to young Corey Kluber. It isn’t working.</p>
<p>The hope is that when Brett Myers gets back from the disabled list soon, he’ll be able to help. We should note though, that Myers had an 8.02 ERA in his first three starts. And while he obviously won’t be that bad, it’s not like he can be expected to remind anyone in Cleveland of a young C.C. Sabathia or Cliff Lee. Maybe he’ll become another version of Paul Byrd. That would help, but it still leaves two spots that are a disaster area.</p>
<p>If the rotation can get Francona to the sixth inning, this team can win games. The bullpen has pitched well, ranking 6<sup>th</sup> in the American League, and they’ve seen the emergence of Bryan Shaw, who’s doing great work in setup, as is Cody Allen. These two join an already stable pen that has Vinnie Pestano and Joe Smith also in setup and Chris Perez closing.</p>
<p>What it adds up to is a formula that relies on scoring a lot of runs and surviving five or six innings, and letting the relief corps take over. When you have a good manager, as Cleveland does, you can milk that for all it’s worth. But in the end, starting pitching is what drives success in this sport and I just don’t see Cleveland having enough. As a Red Sox fan whose grateful to Francona, I’m glad his making his return now where the spirit of triumph can reign. Because I’ll be shocked if Cleveland, without making some kind of significant deal for starting pitching, is over .500 in September.</p>
<p align="center"><b>AROUND THE AMERICAN LEAGUE</b></p>
<p>Baltimore stopped a slump by taking two of three from New York, and the AL East remains a four-team logjam, with the Yankees still in first place, but the Red Sox, Orioles and Rays all within four games of the lead. Significant pitching injuries are hitting this division though. Andy Pettite has missed a start in New York, Wei-Yin Chen is doing a brief DL stint for the Birds, and no injury is bigger than the one that put David Price on the disabled list for Tampa. Last year’s Cy Young winner is expected out until June and Tampa’s entire season hangs on his healthy return.</p>
<p>Texas continues to lead the AL West comfortably, though Oakland grabbed two of three from the Rangers to start the week and keep the deficit at a manageable 5 ½ games. Texas has seen Alexi Ogando go the disabled list, continuing the unbelievable run of quality pitching go on the shelf<b>. <a title="MLB coverage" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/mlb-coverage-texas-rides-high-in-the-al-west/">I sang the praises of this organization recently</a></b> for their ability to plug the holes and consider it one of baseball’s underappreciated success stories this year.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<script src="http://connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js#xfbml=1"></script><fb:like href="http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thesportsnotebook.com%2F2013%2F05%2Fmlb-coverage-francona-rides-high-in-cleveland%2F" send="true" width="450" show_faces="true" font=""></fb:like><p>The post <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/mlb-coverage-francona-rides-high-in-cleveland/">MLB Coverage: Francona Rides High In Cleveland</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com">The Sports Notebook</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Daily Sports: NHL Tripleheader Leads Thursday&#8217;s Card</title>
		<link>http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/daily-sports-nhl-tripleheader-leads-thursdays-card/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 14:09:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/?p=7728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>After a wild night in the NBA playoffs on Wednesday, the daily sports focus shifts to a heavy NHL night on Thursday. The hockey playoffs will feature a nationally televised tripleheader, with the prospect of one team advancing to the conference finals, and both last year’s champs and this year’s favorite facing big games.</p><p>The post <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/daily-sports-nhl-tripleheader-leads-thursdays-card/">Daily Sports: NHL Tripleheader Leads Thursday&#8217;s Card</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com">The Sports Notebook</a>.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After a wild night in the NBA playoffs on Wednesday, the <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/daily-sports/"><b>daily sports</b></a> focus shifts to a heavy NHL night on Thursday. The hockey playoffs will feature a nationally televised tripleheader, with the prospect of one team advancing to the conference finals, and both last year’s champs and this year’s favorite facing big games.</p>
<p>NBC Sports Network carries two of the games, and coverage starts at 8 PM ET with Chicago-Detroit. The Blackhawks are a slight betting line favorite to win this year’s Stanley Cup, but after falling behind the Red Wings 2-1 in games, Chicago now faces a big test in Game 4 from Joe Louis Arena in Detroit tonight.</p>
<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/sports-history/"><img class="alignright" title="Sports History Books" alt="" src="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/DanBanner3a.jpg" width="240" height="180" /></a></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong>Then the action shifts west, where the 2012 Stanley Cup champion Los Angeles Kings had appeared to be in control of their series against the San Jose Sharks. That was before the Sharks grabbed two wins on home ice and knotted the series up 2-2. The pivotal Game 5 goes tonight in SoCal and puck drop is approximately 10:30 PM ET.</p>
<p>Boston is the team that has a chance to advance tonight, with a 3-0 series lead on the New York Rangers, and Game 4 from Madison Square Garden is at 7 PM ET. Another branch-off of the NBC family will have this game and you can find it on CNBC.</p>
<p>The Bruins-Rangers game is one half of a night that has Boston sports getting prominence. MLB Network will show most of the country the Red Sox-Indians game from Fenway at 7 PM ET. The Sox are in hot pursuit of the Yanks in the AL East, the Indians are the surprise of the American League as they lead the Central Division…and, oh yeah, it’s Terry Francona’s return to the Fens for the first time since the front office scapegoated him after the 2011 collapse and then tried to slander him on his way out the door.</p>
<p>Expect a big ovation from the Fenway crowd for Tito, and expect me—a Sox fan myself—to be joining in that ovation from the comfort of my living room (well, in delayed time anyway, because the Bruins will be the game I watch live, with the Sox saved for the DVR).</p>
<p>It’s otherwise a light card for baseball, with only five games going today. Portions of the country will get Detroit-Minnesota on MLB Network. The NBA playoffs are off today. The Memphis-San Antonio series in the West already has two games in, and Miami and Indiana will catch up on Friday.</p>
<p>Here at TheSportsNotebook will have more <a title="MLB coverage" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/mlb-coverage/"><b>MLB coverage</b></a> today. The last two days have been filled with All-Star &amp; award leaders for both the <a title="MLB coverage" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/mlb-coverage-an-early-american-league-all-star-ballot/"><b>American League</b></a> and <a title="MLB coverage" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/mlb-coverage-an-early-national-league-all-star-ballot/"><b>National League</b></a>. Today we’ll have more coverage in the AL, with the topic still TBD. Our <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/hockey/"><b>NHL analysis</b></a>, with updated reviews of all four second-round series will get a fresh installment tomorrow, and Saturday morning will see a new edition of <a title="NBA commentary" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/?cat=578"><b>NBA commentary</b></a>, with a breakdown of the first two games in each conference finals matchup.</p>
<script src="http://connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js#xfbml=1"></script><fb:like href="http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thesportsnotebook.com%2F2013%2F05%2Fdaily-sports-nhl-tripleheader-leads-thursdays-card%2F" send="true" width="450" show_faces="true" font=""></fb:like><p>The post <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/daily-sports-nhl-tripleheader-leads-thursdays-card/">Daily Sports: NHL Tripleheader Leads Thursday&#8217;s Card</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com">The Sports Notebook</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>MLB Coverage: An Early National League All-Star Ballot</title>
		<link>http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/mlb-coverage-an-early-national-league-all-star-ballot/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 16:11:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Flaherty</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>With the baseball season a little past the one-quarter mark, TheSportsNotebook is laying out the case for who should be leading in the race for All-Star positions and major awards. Today our MLB coverage focuses on the National League.</p><p>The post <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/mlb-coverage-an-early-national-league-all-star-ballot/">MLB Coverage: An Early National League All-Star Ballot</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com">The Sports Notebook</a>.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With the baseball season a little past the one-quarter mark, TheSportsNotebook is laying out the case for who should be leading in the race for All-Star positions and major awards. Today our <a title="MLB coverage" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/mlb-coverage/"><strong>MLB coverage</strong></a> focuses on the National League. <strong><a title="MLB coverage" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/mlb-coverage-an-early-american-league-all-star-ballot/">The American League was posted yesterday</a>.</strong></p>
<p>As we did yesterday, let’s briefly run down the unique rules of procedure that govern team selection here at TheSportsNotebook…</p>
<ul>
<li>This is set up as a true team—a five-man starting rotation, and two setup relievers are picked, to go along with the closer and the regular everyday lineup.</li>
<li>As a true team, one of the outfielders must either be a centerfielder, or at least reasonably able to fill the position’s defensive requirements.</li>
<li>I place an inordinate value on defensive range at the middle infield spots, while offense tends to take priority most everywhere else.</li>
<li>Finally—and this is a minor point—I view this as a starting point for a debate that should take place all the way <a title="MLB coverage" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2012/09/national-league-all-stars-the-final-ballot/"><strong>to the end of the season</strong></a>, not just to the All-Star Game at Citi Field in New York this July. Baseball is alone among the major sports in not having season-ending All-Star selection.</li>
</ul>
<p>With that covered, here are the picks for the National League, based solely on their 2013 performance to date…</p>
<p><strong>C: Buster Posey (San Francisco):</strong> This rivalry between Posey and St. Louis’ Yadier Molina has the potential to be a fun, generation-defining kind of thing, but for the time being Posey has a comfortable lead. He’s solidly ahead of Molina in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage&#8211;.399/.517 for Posey, .358/.422 for Molina, so the San Francisco catcher is an easy call.</p>
<p>Russell Martin in Pittsburgh is lurking, at .360/.504 and an ability to handle a pitching staff that’s at least equal to, if not superior to the well-regarded leaders at this spot. Also a shout-out to New York Mets’ catcher John Buck, who’s popped 10 home runs in the vast dimensions of Citi Field.</p>
<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/sports-history/"><img class="alignright" title="Sports History Books" src="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/DanBanner3a.jpg" alt="" width="240" height="180" /></a></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong>1B: Joey Votto (Cincinnati</strong>): It’s a close call between Votto and Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt, both of whom are having seasons that can keep them in not just this discussion, but the one for the MVP award. Goldschmidt’s got the power edge, while Votto is better at keeping himself on-base. Because Votto’s edge in OBP&#8211;.477 to .408—is so decisive, and because if push comes to shove, OBP is a more reliable indicator of a good offense than slugging percentage, I lean Votto’s direction. But the gap is small, and the fact Goldschmidt is grading out higher on the defensive metrics could become a factor if the OBP gap narrows.</p>
<p>Adrian Gonzales in Los Angeles could still get in this discussion. He’s at .374/.458, with the vast dimensions of Dodger Stadium curtailing his power, as Gonzalez has only four home runs. I’ll give him credit for the park he has to hit in, but he needs to at least hit the alleys more and get that slugging number up to .500.</p>
<p><strong>2B: Matt Carpenter (St. Louis</strong>): It’s another Cardinal-Giant rivalry, and this one goes to St. Louis. Carpenter is at .376/.437 and he scores highly on range factor. That gives him the edge over Marco Scutaro, who’s got better offensive numbers, but not by a lot. And at this position, I prefer to take a top defender if it all possible.</p>
<p>The big name lurking here is Philadelphia’s Chase Utley. He’s at .339/.475, so the offensive numbers are in striking distance. But as Utley’s career has worn on, his range factor his taken a hit, so this is a dark horse shot.</p>
<p><strong>3B</strong>: <strong>David Wright (NY Mets):</strong> He’s the best at his position in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and the best defensively. No debate necessary. If Wright does slip, the candidates on the outside are Chris Johnson in Atlanta, at .374/.487, and San Diego’s Chase Headley, at .398/.464. Of this trio, Johnson is the only one in a hitter-friendly park, meaning if he’s actually going to win this spot in the end, I want his offensive numbers to be decisively superior.</p>
<p><strong>SS: Jean Segura (Milwaukee</strong>): This is a two-man race between Segura and Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki. Based purely on the numbers, without regard to park effects, Tulowitzki would have the edge. He leads Segura in OBP, .409 to .393, in slugging, .606 to .571 and is slightly ahead in range, where the duo is the 1-2 combo in the National League.</p>
<p>But the fact Tulowitzki plays in Coors Field has to count against him a little bit, and those offensive number are all very close. That’s why I lean Segura. A stronger argument for Tulowitzki is that he’s clearly the most likely to keep playing at this level and to be in the lead by the All-Star break.</p>
<p><strong>CF: Carlos Gomez (Milwaukee):</strong> I’m not loading up on obscure Brewer players just because I live near Milwaukee. This team’s everyday lineup really is stacked. If you don’t have a centerfielder requirement in your All-Star process, than Gomez probably just misses. But he’s an elite defender at this position who’s having a very good offensive year, at .371/.553.</p>
<p><strong>OF: Shin-Soo Choo (Cincinnati)/Justin Upton (Atlanta):</strong> Choo is the best offensive outfielder in the National League, at .455/.539. Officially, he could meet the centerfielder requirement because…well, because he plays centerfield. But this is a position switch for the man who was a corner outfielder in Cleveland and Choo is a liability on defense. That’s why he had to make his way onto this team via the spots reserved for offensive production. Upton leads the majors with 14 home runs, and has a .387 on-base percentage to boot.</p>
<p>If a Milwaukee fan wanted to vote for their team’s three starters, it would be a credible case. In addition to Gomez, Norichika Aoki has a .400/.450 stat line, and Ryan Braun is cranking out another big year, at .408/.559. You certainly expect Braun to be in this conversation all season long.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>THE STARTING ROTATION</strong></p>
<p><strong>SP: Clayton Kershaw (LA Dodgers)<br />
SP: Patrick Corbin (Arizona)<br />
SP: Matt Harvey (NY Mets)<br />
SP: Jordan Zimmerman (Washington)<br />
SP: Adam Wainwright (St. Louis)</strong></p>
<p>The National League has five starters with ERAs under 2.00, and four of them—the first four on this list have pitched at least sixty innings, and won at least five games, so there wasn’t a lot of analysis required. The last spot came down to two Cardinals. By the ERA criteria and the wins, Shelby Miller—who joins Corbin and Harvey in a trio of dynamic rookie pitchers—would have had the spot. But Miller has only pitched 57 innings. It’s not bad, but Wainwright is a horse, with 72 frames logged. For a short window of the season, that’s a significant edge and I like to have a workhorse. That’s why Wainwright, with his 6-3 record and 2.38 ERA goes in over Miller, at 5-3, 1.74.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>THE BULLPEN</strong></p>
<p><strong>RP: Mark Melancon (Pittsburgh)<br />
RP: Justin Wilson (Pittsburgh)<br />
CL: Jason Grilli (Pittsburgh)</strong></p>
<p>And you were wondering how the Pirates are staying in contention. Grilli is 18-for-18 on save opps with a buck-31 ERA, a season even better than the one Mariano Rivera is enjoying in New York. (The journeyman Grilli can enjoy his fifteen minutes of fame with that comparison). Melancon and Wilson have each logged at least 24 innings, a good workload at this point for a  setup man. Melancon’s ERA is a surreal 0.75, with Wilson at 1.35. I don’t necessarily like making the entire All-Star bullpen from one team, but all three have earned it and are easy choices.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>MAJOR AWARD WINNERS</strong></p>
<p><strong>MVP: Buster Posey (San Francisco)<br />
Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (LA Dodgers)<br />
Manager of the Year: Clint Hurdle (Pittsburgh</strong>)</p>
<p>I wouldn’t call Posey a runaway choice—Wright and Kershaw would not be far behind—but given that Posey gives his production at a position not known for offense,  and his own team’s offensive production is the reason they’re in first place, and that Posey is the most important part of that lineup, that all adds up to a selection that I consider very clear based on today’s numbers.</p>
<p>Along with yesterday’s more obvious decision to anoint Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera as the American League front-runner, that puts on track to have repeat MVP winners in both leagues. If you’re wondering when the last time that happened the answer is never. And this award goes back to 1911.</p>
<p>Kershaw leads the league in both innings and ERA, which make him the man to beat for the Cy Young. I do value wins and losses, even if that’s considered an outdated stat. But the W-L record for an individual pitcher should be third in statistical consideration, and at 5-2, Kershaw is respectable there.</p>
<p>Hurdle has the Pirates playing .600 ball in spite of a bevy of injuries to the starting pitching, a so-so start by Andrew McCutchen and the fact that the team isn’t that good even when everything is going smoothly.</p>
<script src="http://connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js#xfbml=1"></script><fb:like href="http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thesportsnotebook.com%2F2013%2F05%2Fmlb-coverage-an-early-national-league-all-star-ballot%2F" send="true" width="450" show_faces="true" font=""></fb:like><p>The post <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/mlb-coverage-an-early-national-league-all-star-ballot/">MLB Coverage: An Early National League All-Star Ballot</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com">The Sports Notebook</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Daily Sports: LeBron &amp; Crosby Lead Daily Sports On Wednesday</title>
		<link>http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/daily-sports-lebron-crosby-lead-daily-sports-on-wednesday/</link>
		<comments>http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/daily-sports-lebron-crosby-lead-daily-sports-on-wednesday/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 13:28:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Flaherty</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Daily Sports]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[daily sports]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/?p=7721</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The daily sports menu for Wednesday is star-driven, as LeBron James and Sidney Crosby go into action in the NBA &#038; NHL playoffs and the man who’s been the American League’s best pitcher in the early part of the 2013 season gets the ball on ESPN.</p><p>The post <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/daily-sports-lebron-crosby-lead-daily-sports-on-wednesday/">Daily Sports: LeBron &#038; Crosby Lead Daily Sports On Wednesday</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com">The Sports Notebook</a>.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The <strong><a title="daily sports" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/daily-sports/">daily sport</a>s</strong> menu for Wednesday is star-driven, as LeBron James and Sidney Crosby go into action in the NBA &amp; NHL playoffs and the man who’s been the American League’s best pitcher in the early part of the 2013 season gets the ball on ESPN.</p>
<p>LeBron and the Miami Heat open their Eastern Conference Finals series against Indiana tonight at 8:30 PM ET. TNT has the Eastern Finals, so that means the pregame hijinks of Kenny Smith and Charles Barkley, something that should be DVR’d even if the game itself is not a priority. The West, televised on ABC/ESPN, is off until the weekend after San Antonio’s win last night gave them a 2-0 series lead over Memphis.</p>
<p>There is only game in the NHL playoffs, and it’s the Pittsburgh Penguins and Crosby facing a Game 4 test against Ottawa. The Pens lead this series 2-1, but they gave away Game 3 in the closing seconds. We’ve already seen the favorite in the other conference—the Chicago Blackhawks—get pushed up against it by the Detroit Red Wings. And there’s no reason think Ottawa will be an easy out for Pittsburgh—Senators goalie Craig Anderson was the best in the league during the regular season and the rule of life in the NHL playoffs is that the hot goalie rules all. The puck drops at 7:30 PM ET on the NBC Sports Network.</p>
<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/sports-history/"><img class="alignright" title="Sports History Books" src="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/DanBanner3a.jpg" alt="" width="240" height="180" /></a></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong>Yesterday, TheSportsNotebook did its review of the <strong><a title="daily sports" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/mlb-coverage-an-early-american-league-all-star-ballot/">American League All-Star ballot</a>,</strong> and all the major awards. It was concluded that New York Yankees’ starter Hiroki Kuroda deserves to be the Cy Young frontrunner. Kuroda pitches tonight in Baltimore in a game ESPN will show at 7 PM ET. The first two games of this series have each gone into extra innings, with each team winning once.</p>
<p>Otherwise, it’s mostly matinee baseball that drives the TV schedule. MLB Network has Reds-Mets at 1:10 PM ET. And if you’re into college baseball at all, the conference tournaments are going this week. Regional networks are carrying these, and they generally have early starts—the SEC, with the top two teams in the country in LSU and Vanderbilt, start at 9:30 AM. I live in Big Ten Country, and the games today from Target Field in Minnesota start by noon.</p>
<p>Today at TheSportsNotebook, our <a title="MLB coverage" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/mlb-coverage/"><strong>MLB coverage</strong></a> continues with a look at the National League All-Star leaders. And if you haven’t had the chance, check out the NBA commentary and the accompanying <a title="NBA commentary" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/nba-commentary-conference-finals-previews/"><strong>conference finals preview</strong></a>, as Indiana and Miami get set to begin.</p>
<script src="http://connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js#xfbml=1"></script><fb:like href="http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thesportsnotebook.com%2F2013%2F05%2Fdaily-sports-lebron-crosby-lead-daily-sports-on-wednesday%2F" send="true" width="450" show_faces="true" font=""></fb:like><p>The post <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/daily-sports-lebron-crosby-lead-daily-sports-on-wednesday/">Daily Sports: LeBron &#038; Crosby Lead Daily Sports On Wednesday</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com">The Sports Notebook</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>MLB Coverage: An Early American League All-Star Ballot</title>
		<link>http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/mlb-coverage-an-early-american-league-all-star-ballot/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 21 May 2013 20:51:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Flaherty</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[2013 All-Star Game]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p> We’re just past the quarter pole in the major league baseball season and that means it’s time to see where we stand in the race for the All-Star spots and the major awards. Today, TheSportsNotebook’s MLB coverage will focus on the American League.</p><p>The post <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/mlb-coverage-an-early-american-league-all-star-ballot/">MLB Coverage: An Early American League All-Star Ballot</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com">The Sports Notebook</a>.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We’re just past the quarter pole in the major league baseball season and that means it’s time to see where we stand in the race for the All-Star spots and the major awards. Today, TheSportsNotebook’s <a title="MLB coverage" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/mlb-coverage/"><strong>MLB coverage</strong></a> will focus on the American League.</p>
<p>A few notes of procedure before we dive in. TheSportsNotebook’s rules for team selection are as follows…</p>
<ul>
<li>This is set up as a true team—a five-man starting rotation, and two setup relievers are picked, to go along with the closer and the regular everyday lineup.</li>
<li>As a true team, one of the outfielders must either be a centerfielder, or at least reasonably able to fill the position’s defensive requirements.</li>
<li>I place an inordinate value on defensive range at the middle infield spots, while offense tends to take priority most everywhere else.</li>
<li>Finally—and this is a minor point—I view this as a starting point for a debate that should take place all the way <a title="2012 American League All-Stars" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2012/10/american-league-all-stars-the-final-ballot/"><strong>to the end of the season</strong></a>, not just to the All-Star Game at Citi Field in New York this July. Baseball is alone among the major sports in not having season-ending All-Star selection.</li>
</ul>
<p>With all that out of the way, here are the choices, based solely on performance in 2013…</p>
<p><strong>C: Carlos Santana (Cleveland):</strong> The young Tribe catcher is leading the way as his team’s offense has bashed them to the top of the AL Central. Santana has a stat line of .403 on-base percentage/.548 slugging percentage. I like that his OBP is balanced between walks and hits, suggesting he can continue to contribute even when his bat hits the inevitable slump.</p>
<p>Minnesota’s Joe Mauer is in hot pursuit, at .411/.478. Mauer’s home run power is gone, as he’s only hit two, but 17 doubles are keeping his slugging percentage up. Further off the pace is Boston’s Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who’s OBP has improved, and combined with his good power, could set him up for a summer run. Baltimore’s Matt Wieters is off to a slow start, but can’t be discounted.</p>
<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/sports-history/"><img class="alignright" title="Sports History Books" src="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/DanBanner3a.jpg" alt="" width="240" height="180" /></a></strong></strong></strong></strong>1B: Chris Davis (Baltimore):</strong> His 13 home runs are tied for the American League lead, and with a .411 OBP to go along with it, Davis is a lot more than just the thunder of the home run. His slugging percentage is in the stratosphere at .675.</p>
<p>Mitch Moreland in Texas is having a surprising year, at .345/.577. While defense is not a priority at this spot, Moreland’s range and glove work could give him an edge if his hitting numbers get close. The same goes for Minnesota’s Justin Morneau, who’s further off the pace. And a nod to Prince Fielder, at .406/.523 in a tough park to hit in Detroit. Fielder will be in this conversation all year long and is the most likely candidate to challenge Davis as his slugging percentage comes down to earth.</p>
<p><strong>2B: Jose Altuve (Houston):</strong> I know this pick is going to raise an eyebrow, with Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia having excellent offensive seasons for the Yankees and Red Sox. Cano has the power, with 13 home runs, and Pedroia is constantly on base, with a .429 OBP. But they grade out as the worst of defensive second baseman when it comes to range factor. I know Yankee and Red Sox partisans (I’m in the latter category) will find this hard to believe, but there’s more to good defense than having a smooth athletic style (Cano) or bringing scrappy hustle to the park every day (Pedroia). In the end, it’s about getting to more balls and making more plays, and the range factor stat on ESPN.com says both are well below average.</p>
<p>Altuve is an excellent defensive second baseman, and he’s also hitting .327. Whether he can hit well enough to keep this spot as the season wears on is a fair question, but he’s been a good young bat in an otherwise disastrous situation in Houston for a couple years now. Don’t hold his team against him. Another good choice at this spot as the year wears on will be Ian Kinsler in Texas, but after a .369/.500 start he hit the disabled list.</p>
<p><strong>3B: Miguel Cabrera (Detroit</strong>): There’s no reason to tilt at any windmills here. Cabrera is at .457/.659 and soaring above the pack. Right now, Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria, along with Manny Machado in Baltimore are just playing to get further up an MVP ballot that Cabrera quite obviously leads.</p>
<p>Although we should note that both Longoria and Machado are much better defenders than Cabrera. The Detroit third baseman has soft hands and makes the plays he should, but as a converted first baseman, the range just isn’t there. But this is another spot where offense matters most, so the Tampa and Baltimore third basemen need to hope Cabrera comes down to earth.</p>
<p><strong>SS: Jhonny Peralta (Detroit</strong>): American League shortstops have been mediocre for several years now, saved only by the presence of Derek Jeter and the occasional outbreaks by Asdrubal Cabrera in Cleveland. But Jeter’s hurt and Cabrera is off to a poor start. Peralta is a solid .381/.467 and in the upper part of the rankings on range factor.</p>
<p>I suppose I don’t have an issue with Peralta as a legit All-Star—he compiles his numbers in a tough park to hit and does the job defensively—but it’s a big dropoff after that, unless Cabrera, Elvis Andrus or J.J. Hardy can start hitting. Or if you think Jed Lowrie  in Oakland, with his .373/.439 start, can hit that way all year.</p>
<p><strong>CF: Adam Jones (Baltimore):</strong> This is another pick I’m not entirely thrilled with—Jones is having a good year, at .354/.492, but he’s not nearly as good defensively as I would like to see in center. And though it’s kind of nitpicky, if offense is going to put an outfielder on this team, I’d like to see the slugging get over .500.</p>
<p>But with good defensive centerfielders like Jacoby Ellsbury in Boston and Austin Jackson in Detroit way too subpar with the bat to be chosen, I have to overlook the eight points Jones is short of the .500 mark. Another option I really looked closely at was Lorenzo Cain in Kansas City. He ranked fourth for range among AL centerfielders—Jones was ninth—and had a .370 OBP. But what swung me is that the gap between Cain and Jones on the defensive rankings was tighter than the gap between Cain and the #2 spot on the list. Essentially, Jones threaded the needle in every possible way to get on this team.</p>
<p><strong>OF: Alex Gordon (Kansas City)/Alex Rios (ChiSox):</strong> Gordon has arrived as an All-Star leftfielder. He’s put up a .373/.531 stat line and easily the most productive player among the candidates here. Rios is at .366/.554 and doing it in a lineup that isn’t very good. I’ll be surprised if he’s still in this spot when we revisit everything in July, but this selection is based exclusively on the season to date.</p>
<p>The player with the biggest gripe is Mike Trout. He’s got .363/.517 numbers, but that’s narrowly behind both Gordon and Rios, and Trout has more support in the lineup than either one. Even though Trout is playing left in Los Angeles this year, I gave thought to slotting him in center, since we know he can play that spot. For now, Jones has the benefit of the doubt, but if Trout can open up some more room on their offensive numbers, I can easily change my mind.</p>
<p><strong>DH: Lance Berkman (Texas):</strong> Wasn’t this guy supposed to be retired? Berkman is instead putting up .423/.463 numbers, apparently wanting to atone to the good people of Texas for breaking their hearts in the 2011 World Series (Berkman delivered one of two different Game 6 hits  for St. Louis when the Rangers were a strike from clinching).</p>
<p>Berkman is leading a good crop of AL designated hitters, and it’s only the missed playing time early for David Ortiz that has the Red Sox slugger on the outside looking in. Ortiz is lighting it up at .402/.647, and as his at-bat totals climb, his credibility as a pick for this position will as well. Travis Hafner is having a comeback season in New York, and Toronto’s Adam Lind is a quiet dark horse. At .396/.465, he’s definitely not the pick today, but he’s in striking distance.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>THE STARTING ROTATION</strong></p>
<p><strong>SP: Hiroki Kuroda (NY Yankees)<br />
SP: Felix Hernandez (Seattle)<br />
SP: Clay Bucholz (Boston)<br />
SP: Matt Moore (Tampa Bay)<br />
SP: Justin Masterson (Cleveland</strong>)</p>
<p>Kuroda, Fernandez, Bucholz and Moore are the top four in American League starters in ERA. I also look seriously at innings pitched, and wins (yes, I’m a traditionalist on this one, I still think it matters, albeit third in line among pitching stats). Bucholz is 6-0, Kuroda has a 1.99 ERA in one of the game’s most hitter-friendly parks. Hernandez is second in the league in innings pitched, while Moore is a blazing 8-0.</p>
<p>Masterson was the outlier, with a 2.83 ERA that had him well outside the top five. But it’s still pretty good and I like the fact his 70 innings pitched are the most in the American League. I’d rather give up a few more runs and keep the bullpen rested. James Shields is also a horse in Kansas City, but at 2-4, I want to see a few more wins. And Fernandez’s teammate in Seattle, Hisashi Iwakuma is fifth in the league in ERA, with a 5-1 record and can easily move into the starting group.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>THE BULLPEN</strong></p>
<p><strong>RP: Jesse Crain (ChiSox)<br />
RP: Tanner Scheppers (Texas)</strong></p>
<p><strong>CL: Mariano Rivera (NY Yankees)</strong></p>
<p>All of these choices were easy. Crain and Scheppers combine sub-1.00 ERAs with over twenty innings pitched, the only two with such a combo of workload and dominance. And Rivera is merely 17-of-17 on save opportunities with a 1.47 ERA.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>AWARD CHOICES</strong></p>
<p><strong>MVP: Miguel Cabrera (Detroit)<br />
Cy Young: Hiroki Kuroda (NY Yanks)<br />
Manager of the Year: Terry Francona (Cleveland)</strong></p>
<p>With Cleveland leading the AL Central, Francona is an easy pick, as is Cabrera for the MVP. One thing we should note on the latter though, is that the same could be said for Josh Hamilton at this time last year. By year’s end, Hamilton was nowhere near the MVP discussion, left Texas on bad terms and is now a poster boy for an overpaid and underachieving team in Anaheim. I’m not predicting Cabrera’s heading down that route, but it does bear in mind that saying a vote is obvious in May is entirely different from saying it will be obvious in the first few days of October.</p>
<p>Kuroda was a tougher call, and given my Red Sox sympathies, I’d hope Bucholz would actually win it if the choice really ends up this way at season’s end. Bucholz does have a better ERA (1.78 to 1.99) a few more innings (65-58) and better winning percentage (6-0 to 6-2). But Kuroda is close enough across the board, and I really believe Yankee Stadium is a much harder to pitch in than Fenway, especially for a right hander. Boston’s park has that spacious area in right center where long fly balls go to die. New York has no such safety net for a pitcher, and that’s why I might root for Bucholz to win the award, but based on current numbers, I’d have to give a vote to Kuroda.</p>
<p>Tomorrow we’ll take at the National League, and we’ll update both leagues again before the All-Star break.</p>
<script src="http://connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js#xfbml=1"></script><fb:like href="http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thesportsnotebook.com%2F2013%2F05%2Fmlb-coverage-an-early-american-league-all-star-ballot%2F" send="true" width="450" show_faces="true" font=""></fb:like><p>The post <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/mlb-coverage-an-early-american-league-all-star-ballot/">MLB Coverage: An Early American League All-Star Ballot</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com">The Sports Notebook</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Daily Sports: NBA Western Conference Finals Resume Tuesday</title>
		<link>http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/daily-sports-nba-western-conference-finals-resume-tuesday/</link>
		<comments>http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/daily-sports-nba-western-conference-finals-resume-tuesday/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 May 2013 14:39:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Flaherty</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>The NBA playoffs resume tonight, with Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals being the focal point of the daily sports diet for Tuesday. Memphis visits San Antonio in a game that tips at 9 PM ET on ESPN, and I would presume that means you get the entertaining pregame set of Michael Wilbon and Magic Johnson, with Jalen Rose and Bill Simmons along for the ride.</p><p>The post <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/daily-sports-nba-western-conference-finals-resume-tuesday/">Daily Sports: NBA Western Conference Finals Resume Tuesday</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com">The Sports Notebook</a>.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The NBA playoffs resume tonight, with Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals being the focal point of the <a title="daily sports" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/daily-sports/"><strong>daily sports</strong></a> diet for Tuesday. Memphis visits San Antonio in a game that tips at 9 PM ET on ESPN, and I would presume that means you get the entertaining pregame set of Michael Wilbon and Magic Johnson, with Jalen Rose and Bill Simmons along for the ride.</p>
<p>It was a significant night yesterday in the NHL playoffs when Detroit beat Chicago and took a 2-1 series lead, reminding us again that hockey is the sport where no favorite is ever safe. That gives the two conference semi-finals <em>not</em> involving Chicago or Pittsburgh some heightened importance, and both of them are part of an NBC Sports Network doubleheader tonight. The action starts at 7:30 PM ET, with Boston visiting the New York Rangers, and the Bruins trying to build on their 2-0 series lead. Then we go west, where San Jose hosts Los Angeles, and the Sharks can even this series at 2-2 with a win.</p>
<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/sports-history/"><img class="alignright" title="Sports History Books" src="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/DanBanner3a.jpg" alt="" width="240" height="180" /></a></strong></strong></strong></strong>National baseball coverage on Tuesday requires the MLB Network and they’ll have the Yankees-Orioles from Camden Yards at 7 PM ET. These teams gave the ESPN audience a great show last night, with the Yankees tying the game in the bottom of the ninth at 4-4 and then winning in ten innings. Baltimore’s now five games out and at that uncomfortable spot where, regardless of the calendar, you really need to start winning games.</p>
<p>Other MLB action includes the first of a two-game set between Detroit and Cleveland, and the continuation of the Oakland-Texas series. Over in the National League, Zack Greinke makes his return to the mound from injury for the Dodgers, and his return to Milwaukee after the Brewers dealt him last July.</p>
<p>Our fun, non-game related option for tonight is on the NFL Network at 8:30 PM ET, and it’s a half-hour look at one of society’s most crucial developments in the late 1980s and early 1990s—that of the Tecmo Bowl video game. Perhaps the documentary can explain why you could never block Lawrence Taylor on an extra point try or why Bo Jackson was quite literally impossible to tackle. Or why the Washington Redskins, in the Hogs era of their offensive line, had to grind out rushing yards on a reverse to Ricky Sanders. America deserves answers and maybe tonight we’ll get some.</p>
<p>Later today at TheSportsNotebook, our <a title="MLB coverage" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/mlb-coverage/"><strong>MLB coverage</strong></a> will feature an early look at who the American League All-Star team should be. You can also check out playoff series overviews with our <a title="NHL analysis" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/hockey/"><strong>NHL analysis</strong> </a>and <a title="NBA commentary" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/pro-basketball/"><strong>NBA commentary</strong></a>.</p>
<script src="http://connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js#xfbml=1"></script><fb:like href="http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thesportsnotebook.com%2F2013%2F05%2Fdaily-sports-nba-western-conference-finals-resume-tuesday%2F" send="true" width="450" show_faces="true" font=""></fb:like><p>The post <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/daily-sports-nba-western-conference-finals-resume-tuesday/">Daily Sports: NBA Western Conference Finals Resume Tuesday</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com">The Sports Notebook</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>NHL Analysis: Ottawa &amp; Detroit Won&#8217;t Go Quietly</title>
		<link>http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/nhl-analysis-ottawa-detroit-wont-go-quietly/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 20 May 2013 15:51:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Flaherty</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/?p=7708</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings have served notice they won’t go quietly, nor passively accept their roles as sacrificial lambs for the heavily favored Pittsburgh Penguins and Chicago Blackhawks. Each underdog got badly needed wins over the weekend, as TheSportsNotebook reviews all four second-round series…</p><p>The post <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/nhl-analysis-ottawa-detroit-wont-go-quietly/">NHL Analysis: Ottawa &#038; Detroit Won&#8217;t Go Quietly</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com">The Sports Notebook</a>.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings have served notice they won’t go quietly, nor passively accept their roles as sacrificial lambs for the heavily favored Pittsburgh Penguins and Chicago Blackhawks. Each underdog got badly needed wins over the weekend, as TheSportsNotebook reviews all four second-round series…</p>
<p align="center"><strong>PITTSBURGH-OTTAWA</strong></p>
<p>Pittsburgh had come out smoking in Game 2 and looked ready to put the series away. Playing on their home ice, the Penguins outshot the Senators 42-22, with an 18-7 margin in the first period alone. It was the elite players—Sidney Crosby and Jarome Iginla taking a good chunk of the shots, and Crosby lit it up with two first period goals and then completed an early hat trick in the second period. When Pittsburgh hung on for the 4-3 win, there was little reason to think Ottawa could turn it around.</p>
<p>But turn it around is what the Senators did yesterday on home ice. Craig Anderson came up with a huge game in goal, saving 49 of 50 shots. This is an enormous, clutch-level performance under any circumstances, but even more so when a team with as much offensive talent as Pittsburgh is the one taking all those shots. Even so, Ottawa trailed 1-0 and was down to its final half-minute, when Daniel Alfreddson scored a shorthanded goal, the game went to double overtime where Ottawa finally won it.</p>
<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/sports-history/"><img class="alignright" title="Sports History Books" src="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/DanBanner3a.jpg" alt="" width="240" height="180" /></a></strong></strong></strong></strong>If you’re a Pittsburgh fan, you still feel good about the fact that you’re up 2-1 for the series. And even though you lost Game 3, goaltender Tomas Vokoun got back into his hot streak. Vokoun’s strong play off the bench had been briefly interrupted in Game 2 when, in spite of the Pens only allowing twenty shots to a team with mediocre offensive talent, Vokoun allowed Ottawa to shoot their way back in the game.</p>
<p>But if you’re an Ottawa fan you know you stared a loss that would have been close to death in the face and lived to tell about it. You know the crowd is going to rock on Wednesday night when this series resumes. And you know that Anderson can lift you to a win against a team with vastly more talent at every other spot on the ice. It doesn’t take a lot to turn momentum in any sport, and Ottawa will at least have the wind at their back going into a big Game 4.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>CHICAGO-DETROIT</strong></p>
<p>Chicago started Game 2 the same way they ended Game 1, when the Blackhawks took the opener with a three-goal flurry in the third period. Chicago was attacking early, had the momentum and Patrick Kane lit the lamp for a 1-0 lead at the first intermission. But if you want to talk about momentum, nothing shuts it down in any sport faster than defense and that’s what Detroit brought to the table on Saturday. Chicago only got twenty shots for the game and didn’t score again. The Red Wings got goals from four different players, with the common thread being the passing game of Henrik Zetterberg, who had two assists.</p>
<p>This series now goes back to Motown and what’s sure to be a noisy Joe Louis Arena, for games on <strong><a title="daily sports" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/daily-sports-detroit-chicago-keys-monday-night-tv/">Monday</a> </strong>and Thursday. I won’t say this is Chicago’s nightmare scenario—losing one game on your home ice isn’t the end of the world. But Detroit’s being able to steal a win on the road does make this the first real test the Blackhawks have faced in the postseason. Furthermore, Corey Crawford showed the weakness in goal that I’ve been wondering about. Crawford was a liability in last year’s playoffs, before delivering a great regular season performance and then easily handling a non-test from the Minnesota Wild. The Red Wings beat him four times on Saturday with just thirty shots. For right now, I’m still giving Crawford the benefit of the doubt and saying it was just one bad game. But like his team, he’s going to feel some heat the next two games.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>LOS ANGELES-SAN JOSE</strong></p>
<p>I suppose we can add San Jose to the list of teams who won’t go quietly, although I don’t that the Sharks’ chances in this series were as lightly regarded as either Ottawa’s or Detroit’s. But San Jose was in a 2-0 series hole when they ground out a 2-1 overtime in win Game 3 to tighten the series back up.</p>
<p>San Jose used a formula that’s very difficult to execute, but can work—they simply outshot Los Angeles by a lot, 40-27. Antti Niemi, the Sharks goalie is pretty good, but he’s not in Jonathan Quick’s class. If the shots are even, both in terms of volume and the quality of the players taking them, there would be no reason to expect San Jose to win. But the Sharks not only got a lot of chances, it was good offensive threats like Logan Couture and Patrick Marleau taking their whacks at the net. Other than Jeff Carter, Los Angeles doesn’t have comparable answers on their own front line.</p>
<p>Maintaining this kind of short margin is difficult, but it’s not impossible—and if Niemi were truly terrible, it still wouldn’t be enough. But  he’s not, he just needs some help going up against Quick. San Jose tries to even this series up in Game 4, and the teams are back in Los Angeles on Thursday for Game 5.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>BOSTON-NY RANGERS</strong></p>
<p>A theme of the first three series has been teams who won’t go quietly. An objective journalist would call the New York Rangers the exception to that rule and say that on Sunday afternoon in Boston Garden, they looked like the team that <em>will</em> go quietly, losing 5-2 and falling behind in the series two games to none. Except that the author of this particular piece is no objective journalist, but a raving Bruins’ fan who refuses to do anything that might be construed as a jinx, a reverse jinx or any of the nonsense that <a title="sports fan rules" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2011/12/fan-o-meter-the-rules-of-being-a-sports-fan/"><strong>we fans</strong></a> talk ourselves into thinking affects the game.</p>
<p>On a more serious note though, New York looked awful. The 37-32 shot advantage enjoyed by the Rangers doesn’t tell the story of how bad goalie Henrik Lundqvist was, or how bad the New York power play was—not only did they blow five chances with the man advantage (while Boston had just one), the Rangers never looked remotely ready to score in these situations. They got goals from Ryan Callahan and Rick Nash on great individual one-on-one plays, but nothing that looked like it might be the result of good schematics.</p>
<p>Boston was able to win by doing what they do best—superior execution in the 5-on-5 game and superior balance. Five different players scored, with centers Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci  each having two assists.</p>
<p>Both teams have been here before though—the Rangers were in a 2-0 series hole against Washington in the first round, and returned home to win two games and eventually the series. Boston had a 3-1 series lead on Toronto, before requiring a historic comeback to win Game 7. We’ll find out Tuesday night in MSG if this was just one exceptionally poor game for the Rangers, or a sign of something deeper.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>WHAT’S AHEAD</strong></p>
<p>The next portion of the playoff schedule will stretch out over four nights and get us to a point where each series will be through four games, and Los Angeles-San Jose having Game 5 under their belt. Here’s the sked…</p>
<p><strong>MONDAY</strong><br />
Chicago-Detroit  (7:30 PM ET, NBC Sports Network)</p>
<p><strong>TUESDAY</strong><br />
Boston-NY Rangers (7:30 PM ET, NBC Sports Network)<br />
Los Angeles-San Jose (10 PM ET, NBC Sports Network)</p>
<p><strong>WEDNESDAY</strong><br />
Pittsburgh-Ottawa (7:30 PM ET, NBC Sports Network)</p>
<p><strong>THURSDAY</strong><br />
Boston-NY Rangers (7 PM ET, CNBC)<br />
Chicago-Detroit (8 PM ET, NBC Sports Network)<br />
San Jose-Los Angeles (10:30 PM ET, NBC Sports Network)</p>
<p>TheSportsNotebook’s <a title="NHL analysis" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/hockey/"><strong>NHL analysis</strong></a> will come back on Friday to assess how each series looks. It’s possible that Los Angeles &amp; Boston could be in the conference finals by then. Furthermore, our morning <a title="daily sports" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/daily-sports/"><strong>daily sports</strong></a> feature will summarize the TV schedule for each day and integrate these games into what your other options are in TV sports.</p>
<p>In the meantime, please also check out our <a title="MLB coverage" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/mlb-coverage/"><strong>MLB coverage</strong></a>—this week will be highlighted by an update on who should be leading each league’s All-Star race—and <a title="NBA commentary" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/pro-basketball/"><strong>NBA commentary</strong></a>, as the conference finals have begun.</p>
<script src="http://connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js#xfbml=1"></script><fb:like href="http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thesportsnotebook.com%2F2013%2F05%2Fnhl-analysis-ottawa-detroit-wont-go-quietly%2F" send="true" width="450" show_faces="true" font=""></fb:like><p>The post <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/nhl-analysis-ottawa-detroit-wont-go-quietly/">NHL Analysis: Ottawa &#038; Detroit Won&#8217;t Go Quietly</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com">The Sports Notebook</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Daily Sports: Detroit-Chicago Keys Monday Night TV</title>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 20 May 2013 13:09:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Flaherty</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>It’s a night off in the NBA playoffs tonight, as Memphis-San Antonio resume their Western Conference Finals matchup on Tuesday, and Miami-Indiana don’t start in the East until Wednesday. That allows the NHL to be the focal point of the daily sports menu on Monday.</p><p>The post <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/daily-sports-detroit-chicago-keys-monday-night-tv/">Daily Sports: Detroit-Chicago Keys Monday Night TV</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com">The Sports Notebook</a>.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It’s a night off in the NBA playoffs tonight, as Memphis-San Antonio resume their Western Conference Finals matchup on Tuesday, and Miami-Indiana don’t start in the East until Wednesday. That allows the NHL to be the focal point of the <a title="daily sports" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/daily-sports/"><strong>daily sports</strong></a> menu on Monday.</p>
<p>The Chicago-Detroit series goes to Motown with the series tied 1-1 and the folks in the Windy City undoubtedly feeling a bit nervous&#8212;they are the heavy favorite, but Detroit’s a got a history and it’s not one that makes Chicago fans comfortable. Game time is 7:30 PM ET on the NBC Sports Network.</p>
<p>ESPN has Monday Night baseball and a key series starts in the AL East, with the New York Yankees in Baltimore to play the Orioles. The Birds are slumping, having lost three straight to Tampa at home over the weekend and need to plant their feet and win this series at home. Baltimore has even picked up veteran Freddy Garcia to help their rotation and he’ll pitch tonight against C.C. Sabathia. The game starts at 7 PM ET.</p>
<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/sports-history/"><img class="alignright" title="Sports History Books" src="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/DanBanner3a.jpg" alt="" width="240" height="180" /></a></strong></strong></strong></strong>Two other series openers to keep an eye on would be Oakland-Texas and Washington-San Francisco. The A’s have to prevent the Rangers from running away and hiding from the rest of the AL West, and the Nats-Giants series is a possible NLCS preview between two teams with great pitching. On a completely off-the-wall note is it possible that these two cities could have their teams meet in both the NLCS and the NFC Championship Game?</p>
<p>Which provides a segueway into football and a fun historical feature tonight on the NFL Network. The epic 1981 NFC Championship Game between the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys—where Joe Montana started to write the NFL version of his legend—will be shown at 8 PM ET. And on ESPN2, a 30-for-30 feature will look at the 2004 ALCS and the Boston Red Sox historic comeback against the New York Yankees.</p>
<p>TheSportsNotebook will have <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/hockey/"><strong>NHL analysis</strong></a> later this morning, as we overview all four second-round series. Also be sure and check the <a title="NBA commentary" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/nba-commentary-conference-finals-previews/"><strong>conference finals previews</strong> </a>that were the <a title="NBA commentary" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/pro-basketball/"><strong>NBA commentary</strong></a> here yesterday, and take a look at <a title="MLB coverage" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/mlb-coverage/"><strong>MLB coverage</strong></a>, something that we’ll give a double dose to this week, with All-Star ballots being added to the normal team features run here.</p>
<script src="http://connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js#xfbml=1"></script><fb:like href="http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thesportsnotebook.com%2F2013%2F05%2Fdaily-sports-detroit-chicago-keys-monday-night-tv%2F" send="true" width="450" show_faces="true" font=""></fb:like><p>The post <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/daily-sports-detroit-chicago-keys-monday-night-tv/">Daily Sports: Detroit-Chicago Keys Monday Night TV</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com">The Sports Notebook</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>NBA Commentary: Conference Finals Previews</title>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 19 May 2013 13:57:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Flaherty</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>The conference finals in the NBA playoffs are set, as the Indiana Pacers eliminated the New York Knicks, 106-99 in Game 6 of their second round series. We’ll briefly recap the Pacers-Knicks game, and then dive into previews of the next round—Memphis-San Antonio in the West and Indiana-Miami in the East.</p><p>The post <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2013/05/nba-commentary-conference-finals-previews/">NBA Commentary: Conference Finals Previews</a> appeared first on <a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com">The Sports Notebook</a>.</p>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The conference finals in the NBA playoffs are set, as the Indiana Pacers eliminated the New York Knicks, 106-99 in Game 6 of their second round series. We’ll briefly recap the Pacers-Knicks game, and then dive into previews of the next round—Memphis-San Antonio in the West and Indiana-Miami in the East.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>THE KNICKS DON’T MEASURE UP</strong></p>
<p>What other conclusion can you reach when New York does everything they could be reasonably asked to do, and still lose the basketball game? The Knicks had their three-point shooting game going, hitting 13-of-30 from behind the arc. Carmelo Anthony was hot inside the arc, knocking down 39 points on 15-of-29 shooting. New York got a big performance from Iman Shumpert who buried five treys. As a team the Knicks made all 18 of their free throw attempts. And yet they still lost.</p>
<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><a href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/sports-history/"><img class="alignright" title="Sports History Books" src="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/DanBanner3a.jpg" alt="" width="240" height="180" /></a></strong></strong></strong></strong>New York couldn’t match up with Indiana’s strength down low. The theme of this series again played out last night in Indy. The Pacers decisively won the rebounding battle and their control of the interior led them to a decisive edge at the foul line. Even with New York shooting 100 percent from the stripe, Indiana got the line 46 times and with 34 makes, had the scoring edge that made the difference.</p>
<p>Roy Hibbert was the key player on all counts. He got the ball in the low post, something that’s certainly not always the case with this team. Hibbert was 9/12 at the line, and had overall numbers of 21 points/12 rebounds/5 blocks. His biggest block came with a snuff of Anthony at the rim late in the game and that play was the momentum-changer that enabled the Pacers to pull away.</p>
<p>Indiana got great backcourt play from Lance Stephenson and George Hill. Stephenson had 25 points/10 rebounds, while Hill scored 12 and the two guards combined to go 14-of-15 from the free throw line. In the end, the Pacers won because they are a better, more complete basketball team than the Knicks, and before this offseason in New York degenerates into some form of complaining against Melo or Mike Woodson’s coaching, the front office may as well just realize that and get better and younger on the frontline.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS: SAN ANTONIO-MEMPHIS</strong></p>
<p>This series starts this afternoon in San Antonio and you can make excellent cases for either team to advance to the Finals. No one is playing better basketball right now than Memphis—I exclude Miami because the Heat have faced such minimal competition through two rounds it’s hard to know how well they’re really playing. The Grizzlies are known for their tough defense and rebounding, and Zach Randolph and Pau Gasol have both come up big in the series wins over the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City. The duo has combined for a 38 points/17 rebounds per game average in the playoffs.</p>
<p>Mike Conley has stepped into his own at the point guard spot. He’s always been a great passer, and is getting seven assists a game, but now he’s scoring—18 ppg in the playoffs—and making defenses pay if they collapse on Randolph or Gasol. Quincy Pondexter has chipped in with some good three-point shooting, Tony Allen kicks in 11 ppg and Tayshuan Prince provides both veteran leadership and a defensive stopper.</p>
<p>The quality of the Grizzlies play can be illustrated by this—even though they were 18<sup>th</sup> in the NBA in offensive efficiency during the regular season, they’ve been the fifth-best of the playoff teams—in spite of playing very good teams in each of the first two rounds. This team has balance and they’re peaking. What more could you want?</p>
<p>Well, I suppose you could want an opponent that’s not quite as battle-tested. I can’t rattle off the array of names that the San Antonio Spurs bring to the table—you know they get great backcourt play from Tony Parker, solid post work from Tim Duncan and both veterans provide leadership, but after that it’s role players stepping in and out. I can’t throw out silver-bullet stats. All I can do is just point out that the Spurs responded to a major challenge from Golden State and drastically increased the quality of their defensive play as that second round series went on. If there’s an intangible edge to be had against any opponent—including Miami—the Spurs will find it.</p>
<p>And one thing I have liked about San Antonio all season long is the quality of their defense. They were third in efficiency during the regular season and continued to defend at a high level in the playoffs.  It’s an area that marked improvement has been made from last season. The key in this series will be getting rebounding—first from Kawhi Leonard, who’s averaging eight boards a game in the playoffs, and from Tiago Splitter. Duncan alone won’t be enough against Gasol and Randolph.</p>
<p>Based purely on the matchups, there’s no reason not to pick Memphis. But the NBA playoffs are a time for veterans and I think the Parker/Duncan combo, with Gregg Popovich orchestrating on the sidelines, has got one more big series win left in them. I think the bad taste of last year’s loss to Oklahoma City in this round is going to be a driving force. And the defensive performance the Spurs have delivered all year gives me a reasonable basis for this belief, rather than just guessing on intangibles. San Antonio in seven games.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS: MIAMI-INDIANA</strong></p>
<p>I know the media is disappointed that we don’t get a Heat-Knicks conference finals matchup. The LeBron-Melo showdown would have been good for publicity, and the archivists could have dug out some highlights of <a title="Knicks-Heat rivalry" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/2012/12/under-the-radar-sports-history-the-knicks-heat-rivalrys-last-battle/"><strong>the fierce playoff wars these teams waged</strong></a> from 1997-2000. But Heat-Pacers will make for a more compelling basketball matchup.</p>
<p>The reason is simple—New York can’t counter anything Miami does. If you’re built around one star (Melo, in this case) and the other team’s star is better, how do you expect to win? Indiana, on the other hand, has the option of going right at Miami’s underbelly, which is the low post.</p>
<p>I’ve felt Heat coach Erik Spoelstra made a brilliant decision when he decided to quit forcing minutes onto mediocre centers just to have his lineup meet some esoteric ideal. The Heat’s strength was its perimeter depth and the amazing versatility of King James, so Spoelstra played to that and spread the floor. Miami was only 21<sup>st</sup> in the NBA in rebounding, but made up for it with good defense and great offensive execution, an area they were the league’s best.</p>
<p>But making the most of the way your roster is constructed doesn’t mean you don’t have a weakness and Indiana is one of the few teams (along with Memphis, and perhaps San Antonio) who have the personnel that can go after that. The Heat have no way of matching up with Hibbert and David West down low if Indiana persists in going after it. Chris Bosh has had a good postseason, but he’s not enough, and if you put LeBron down low too much you take away from his strength and potentially get him in foul trouble.</p>
<p>The question then becomes twofold—will Indiana stay focused enough to execute this game plan, and if they do, can Miami compensate by obliterating the Pacers on the perimeter?</p>
<p>We’ll start with the latter question. The health of Dwayne Wade’s knee has been in question all year and it’s a big X-factor in this series, but right now Wade looks to be ready to play, so we’ll assume he can be productive. Wade is shooting a solid 45 percent in the playoffs and Norris Cole has been excellent supporting piece. Mario Challmes runs the offense and you have veteran three-point shooters in Ray Allen and Shane Battier.</p>
<p>Indiana, by contrast has Stephenson and Hill. If the latter two play like they did last night, the Heat will have problems. More realistically though, the Heat can indeed obliterate the Pacers on the perimeter if it comes to that. Which would put pressure on Indiana small forward Paul George to not simply play well, but be a star. George has had some great games in these playoffs, but if his team is going to win this series, he needs a string of 20 points/12 rebounds/8 assists showings .</p>
<p>My bigger concern though is whether the Pacers will stay focused enough to pound the ball to the paint. They had this same edge in the playoffs last year, and won two of the first three games against Miami. But they settled into three-point shooting. And that tendency has continued to show itself at different points through their series wins over Atlanta and New York.</p>
<p>What it comes down to this—I know what I’m getting from Miami. LeBron’s got a playoff average of 24/7/7 and he’s so consistent it seems like exactly that every night. I know they’ll play defense and this being the NBA, I know they’ll get a few calls down the stretch.</p>
<p>I don’t know what I’m getting from Indiana. If I get the smart, disciplined Pacers that showed up last night, they can not only compete, they can shock the world. But I’ve seen nothing that tells me that Hibbert will get the ball down low over and over for several games in a row. That’s why I see Miami holding serve at home, stealing one of the middle games on the road and winning this in five games.</p>
<p align="center"><strong>WHAT’S AHEAD</strong></p>
<p>It’s a weird schedule this week for the conference finals. Miami and Indiana won’t start until Wednesday night (8:30 PM ET, TNT). By then Memphis-San Antonio will have two games under their belt—both today (3:30 PM ET, ABC) and Tuesday (9 PM ET, ESPN). Then the West gets a few days off while the East catches up and by the weekend each series will be ready to start Game 3 and go every other day.</p>
<p>TheSportsNotebook’s <a title="NBA commentary" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/pro-basketball/"><strong>NBA commentary</strong></a> therefore, will wait until Saturday morning to return. We can review what went down in the first two games of both series and look ahead to what might happen when the lower seeds get their home games.</p>
<p>In the meantime, be sure to check out our <a title="NHL analysis" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/hockey/"><strong>NHL analysis</strong></a>, as the second round heats up this week, along with <a title="MLB coverage" href="http://www.thesportsnotebook.com/category/mlb-coverage/"><strong>MLB coverage</strong></a>, where next week will mark a time to fill out early All-Star ballots and individual award leaders in both leagues.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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