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College Football Playoff Scenarios

These six teams are at the heart of the race for the College Football Playoff: Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State and Georgia. It will take an upset of some significance to prevent any of the four CFP bids from going to this group of six teams.

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The most significant game is Michigan-Ohio State on November 24 in Columbus. The loser is out and the winner in all likelihood will win the Big Ten Championship Game and make the Playoff.

The fly in the ointment is the other big game—the Alabama-Georgia battle in the SEC Championship Game on December 1. A 12-0 Crimson Tide team that has dominated the field this year probably has a loss to give. A Bulldog squad that would likely be 12-1 if they win this game, would be very difficult to keep out if they beat Alabama. If everything else goes according to form, an SEC title for Georgia probably leaves the Big Ten champ by the wayside.

Notre Dame is the odd sock in this group of teams. It’s hard for me to see this Irish team as an unbeaten one, but here they are in mid-November at 10-0. There’s no way I’d pick this Irish team to beat Michigan right now—but that’s exactly what Notre Dame did to open the season.

Having said all that, if you aren’t good enough to run the table, a loss usually finds you. That’s the lesson we relearn every November in college football and it bears reflecting on as the Irish get set to play surprising Syracuse on Saturday in Yankee Stadium and then travel to underachieving, but talented USC to close the year on the Saturday after Thanksgiving.

An Irish loss creates the most potential for controversy within this group of six teams, even more so than a debate over a one-loss Alabama vs. the Big Ten champ would. Is an 11-1 Notre Dame team really one of the best four in the country? The “eye test” that so many analysts, especially those on the committee, take so seriously would likely say no.

But the “who have you beaten on the football field regardless of how it looked” test that some of us subscribe to, would say it is utterly impossible to leap a one-loss Michigan over one-loss Notre Dame when the Irish won head-to-head. We would further say it’s at least iffy to vault a one-loss Ohio State team that was destroyed at Purdue and has at least as many shaky close calls as Notre Dame.

We won’t know how the Playoff Committee will really see it until such a loss happens (and I’ll go on record as saying I think it will happen). So maybe Notre Dame has a loss to give. Or maybe not. It’s the biggest question out there right now. The same would go for Clemson, who has to play South Carolina and then Pitt in the ACC Championship Game. But the Tigers, who have the best defense in the country, are far less likely to make this a discussion point.

Chaos Scenarios For The College Football Playoff

The College Football Playoff rankings are due out in a couple hours and they’ve taken on a certain clarity. There a number of things we know for sure, with a handful of teams needing chaos. Here’s what I would consider to be certain…

*The SEC champion is going. Even if it’s two-loss Auburn, the winner of that championship game in Atlanta is a lock.

*The ACC champion, either Clemson or Miami is going.

*Alabama is going. Even if they lose to Auburn. The Crimson Tide are not dropping from #1 all the way to #5 because of a potential loss in the Iron Bowl and they certainly won’t drop that far if they win that game, but lose to Georgia in the SEC title game.

*Oklahoma controls their destiny.

*The Big Ten champion, either Wisconsin or Ohio State is the first alternate—if Alabama wins the SEC, that leaves a spot open. Or if Oklahoma loses, another opening materializes.

Of course “certainty” is a relative term in college football, especially in November. I would simply define “chaos” as anything that happens outside of the neatly packaged box outlined above. There’s still hope for any of the following…

*The loser of Clemson-Miami
*Notre Dame
*USC

So what do they need to happen to blow up the landscape and sneak into the Playoff through the backdoor. Here’s a few scenarios that are not completely out of the question…

*Ironically, rooting for chaos starts with rooting for the most predictable thing in college football—root for Alabama to take care of business and ensure the SEC is a one-bid league.

*Oklahoma loses to either West Virginia this weekend or TCU, the likely opponent in the Big 12 title game.

*Ohio State loses at Michigan, then turns around beats Wisconsin for the Big Ten title. Or Wisconsin is upset at Minnesota (who is fighting to get bowl-eligible) and then wins the Big Ten title. Either way, something happens that the Big Ten champ is either a one-loss Wisconsin (disrespected for its schedule strength) or a three-loss Ohio State.

*If you’re USC, you also need to root for Stanford to beat Notre Dame, due to ND”s head-to-head victory over the Trojans.

*If you’re Notre Dame, you’ve got other head-to-head problems. You’d prefer that Miami win the ACC and instead be compared to two-loss Clemson rather than a Hurricane team you got trounced by. You’d prefer two-loss Georgia not be in the picture either, meaning the Bulldogs would have to lose to Georgia Tech this weekend before getting knocked out for good by Alabama.

Are you following all that? Let’s assume that Alabama and Clemson win, as they’ll likely be favored to do in their conferences. Then let’s assume Oklahoma loses and something happens in the Big Ten along the lines of what’s described above. Who do you take for the final two spots? I’m betting Miami and Georgia go, fresh off losses in their conference championship games.

That’s what I think would happen. Personally, I’d prefer to see a rule in place that disqualified teams that lost a conference title game, thus making that first Saturday of December a de facto start of the playoffs. It would drastically simplify the process…although that might mean that the weekly TV show unveiling the rankings that ESPN has wouldn’t be as important and we’d just have to watch the games play out.

Could The Big Ten & SEC Sweep The Playoff Berths?

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College football had a chaotic weekend, with Clemson, Washington and Washington State all taking their first loss in surprising fashion. It has opened the door for the possibility that the SEC and Big Ten could sweep the four Playoff berths. The four teams this scenario is built around are Alabama-Georgia out of the SEC and Penn State-Ohio State from the Big Ten.

The SEC side of the equation is already in pretty good shape. If Alabama and Georgia both go 12-0, their matchup in the conference championship game will be so meaningless it might be the first such game at the college level where the coaches rest starters to keep them healthy. There’s also likely some room for error if one of these teams comes in at 11-1 and that team wins the title game, thereby leaving the Selection Committee with two 12-1 SEC candidates.

It’s the Big Ten side that’s more interesting. Ohio State and Penn State, out of the Eastern Division, are joined by undefeated Wisconsin from the West as serious contenders. However, for the two-team parlay to work, it likely has to be the two teams from the East and it certainly has to be with Penn State as runner-up.

Wisconsin’s schedule is not good enough to lose a conference championship game and still make it. Ohio State has already lost to Oklahoma—and besides, last year they got the benefit of the doubt from the Committee as a non-conference champ and promptly laid an egg against Clemson in the Playoff semi-finals.

Therefore, for this scenario to work for the Big Ten, Ohio State has to win out and finish 12-1 as the conference champs. Penn State has to win all games except for their visit to Columbus on October 28 and finish 11-1. If all that happens, here’s how the rest of the national landscape would need to shake out…

*The Big 12 and the ACC Coastal Division each have unbeaten teams (TCU & Miami) along with notable one-loss contenders (Oklahoma and Virginia Tech). Both leagues are notorious for beating each other up. It’s simply necessary for the cannibalism to continue for them. Given the balance in both, I think it realistic that no one survives with fewer than two losses.

*The Pac-12 must do the same. The events of this week already reduced the one-loss teams here to USC, Washington and Washington State. We’re still two weeks from November. It’s unlikely the Pac-12 produces a 12-1 champion.

*Notre Dame must lose again. I like what the Irish have going this season, but they aren’t running the table the rest of the way.

*Here’s the hard part—Clemson still realistically controls its destiny. The Tigers must lose one more time and there’s a couple of caveats—if that loss comes to one-loss N.C. State, then the Wolfpack must also lose somewhere else. And if Clemson were to lose the ACC Championship Game, then the Coastal champ must have already taken the two losses discussed above. It’s a lot to have happen, but hardly out of the question.

*I’d like to tell you that the winner of South Florida-Central Florida, the two unbeaten teams in the American Athletic would also have to lose somewhere else. But the dismissiveness the Power Five conferences have to anyone outside of it is well-established. I don’t condone it, but it’s reality. Even at 13-0, neither of these teams are getting a shot to validate themselves in the Playoff.

If all this happens, I think an 11-1 Penn State team would get in. They would have wins over both Michigan and Michigan State. At least one of those, if not both, will look good. They already have wins over Iowa, which could win nine games and Indiana, which could win eight. Presumably their loss to Ohio State would be a competitive one.

The Selection Committee opened the door for this scenario last year when they took runner-up Ohio State over Big Ten champ Penn State. What I’m suggesting is actually less radical—in this case, you aren’t completely ignoring the conference champion, simply adding to them.

And let’s also be frank—the SEC and Big Ten drive revenue in college football and ESPN would love to have all four of the teams come from these leagues. If circumstances make it justifiable, I think the Committee will make it happen.

Thoughts On The College Football Playoff Games

The College Football Playoff semifinals are on New Year’s Eve, starting at 4 PM ET with Oklahoma-Clemson in the Orange Bowl and the prime-time show with Michigan State-Alabama in the Cotton Bowl. Here’s some thoughts on both games…

OKLAHOMA-CLEMSON

I like Clemson. Dabo Swinney seems like a pretty good guy and I’ve liked seeing him get Clemson over the proverbial hump and into this game. I have no problem with Clemson as the #1 team in the country—in a year where no one has really stood out, there’s nothing wrong with defaulting to the only unbeaten team.

But…you knew there was a “but” coming after all that opening didn’t you? I just can’t quite get sold on this team as a national champion. The Clemson offense bogged down against Florida State and had Everett Golson been available in that game, the Seminoles might have had enough firepower to win it. Clemson bogged down in the second half against Notre Dame.

There’s reasonable excuses both times—Florida State has one of the best defenses in the country and the Notre Dame game was played in a monsoon (although the Irish were able to move it in the second half and nearly pulled the game out). Because of the reasonable excuses, I’m open to having my mind changed on Thursday, but Clemson strikes me as more a good major bowl team—like Notre Dame, whom the Tigers played essentially even—rather than national championship-ready.

Oklahoma is the hot team right now and Baker Mayfield is the hot quarterback. The Sooners have a true Big Three offensively with Mayfield, running back Samaje Perine and wide receiver Sterling Shepard. They’re the most prolific offense in the country and have hit on all cylinders in November.

But…there’s a but here too. The Big 12 has become notorious for games that are glorified flag football. How seriously can we take the offensive numbers that OU has to step outside the league? Clemson might not be a perfect team, but they hit and they play real football.

And while the Oklahoma defense played well enough to win down the stretch, they faced backup quarterbacks in their games against TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma State. Now they face DeShaun Watson, the chief rival to Mayfield for the honor of best quarterback in the nation.

I think the ultimate key to this game lies with Clemson’s edge pass rushers. Shaq Lawson and Kevin Dodd have been terrific all year and it’s imperative that the Tigers be able to pressure Mayfield and do it by rushing no more than four and limiting Mayfield’s options. Lawson and Dodd are capable and whether they get the job done likely decides the winner of this game.

MICHIGAN STATE-ALABAMA

The Alabama defense ranks third in the nation, the best defense in the Playoff. Whether you use statistics or rely on what you see, the Tide’s front seven can stop anyone. They teed off on LSU’s Leonard Fournette and shut him down. If you want to establish the run against Alabama, you’re out of luck.

That doesn’t have to bother Michigan State though, because the Spartans don’t rely on the run. They rely on Conner Cook throwing the football. While the Orange Bowl might have the two best college quarterbacks over the past year, Cook is the best NFL prospect at the quarterback position and if not for a shoulder injury down the stretch, might have the numbers to match. He’s also got a solid receiver in Aaron Burbridge who can stretch defenses and is a tough enough to go over the middle and get hit.

Cook struggled against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game, but he was also clearly limited by his shoulder. I’m going to assume that the time off has allowed him to get fully healthy. If Cook can’t make all the throws, then there’s no point in discussing anything else—this game is over.

It’s not that Michigan State is an offensive team that needs to blow the scoreboard lights out. This is still a program built on defense and that went to Ohio State and shut down the Buckeyes. But that game was played in the rain and Sparty didn’t need to score a lot of points. They’ll need to at least find a way to score 24 or so against Alabama and that’s only going to happen with Cook.

Alabama relies on Heisman Trophy-winning running back Derrick Henry, who rushed for nearly 2,000 yards. Michigan State’s defense can get after it up front. We saw them shut down the Buckeye running game with Ezekiel Elliot. It’s easy to dismiss that as the result of bad playcalling by Ohio State and bad weather, but if you watched that game you saw Sparty’s defensive lineman consistently getting into the gaps and plugging holes. They can do the same to Alabama.

That will put a burden on ‘Bama’s Jake Coker. He’s the most inconsistent of the four quarterbacks in the Playoff and by a lot. That’s why I don’t understand why Alabama is such a prohibitive favorite—they’re an 8 ½ point fave in this game and an even money pick to win the national championship. To my eyes, this game looks pretty well even and Alabama looks on a par with everyone else—but not superior.

Moreover, if the game is close, Michigan State is easily the team you can have more confidence in. As great as Nick Saban is, it’s reasonable to wonder about his game management skills. In his national championship runs at ‘Bama, he won decisively over Texas (2009), LSU (2011) and Notre Dame (2012). He’s lost high-profile close games to Auburn (2013) and Ohio State (2014). The only significant win that was really close that I can recall is the 2012 SEC Championship Game against Georgia—whose now-deposed head coach Mark Richt had his own issues with game management.

I don’t want to make too much of it, because if the “worst” thing you can say about a coach is that he wins his biggest games in blowouts, that doesn’t exactly qualify as virulent criticism. But the lack of close wins—and Saban’s spotty record in the NFL where most games are close—stand in sharp contrast to Michigan State. The Spartans have gone to the wire in their wins over Oregon, Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa this season. They did the same last year in the Cotton Bowl against Baylor. The coaches and players know how to compete with a chill down their spine.

Las Vegas says Oklahoma and Alabama will win. I’m predicting Oklahoma and Michigan State. And my heart is with Clemson & Michigan State.

Ohio State Holds The Key To College Football Playoff Selection Questions

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Even when they’re not playing, Ohio State looms large in the College Football Playoff rankings. The Buckeyes are at the center of two key questions regarding the New Year’s Six bowl games in general, and the four CFP teams in particular. And how the Committee answers those questions will tell us a lot over how much they really value a conference or division title.

The first of those in the big one that everyone in the nation is wondering about—what happens if Clemson or Alabama, the 1-2 teams in the rankings, lose their conference championship games? Ohio State is sitting at #6. We already know that either #4 Iowa or #5 Michigan State will lose in the Big Ten Championship game at Indianapolis. An upset loss by the Crimson Tide or Tigers would open the door for the Buckeyes to naturally elevate into the top four, where #3 Oklahoma is safe and idle.

It wouldn’t take a monumental upset either. Granted, Alabama losing to Florida, with the Tide favored by (-17.5) would be as big of a big-game upset since Boise State beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl nine years ago, but the Clemson-North Carolina battle should be a good game. The Tar Heels have won 11 in a row, have explosive playmakers on offense and the Tigers are only a (-5) favorite. That’s not exactly a gimme.

I personally believe North Carolina deserves to control its playoff destiny. If they beat Clemson, then the Tar Heels should just replace the Tigers in the Playoff. UNC’s early-season loss to South Carolina is ugly, but no uglier than Ohio State getting smacked by Virginia Tech last year was. Buckeye fans don’t have a leg to stand on in demeaning the North Carolina loss. The Tar Heels are currently ranked #10, but who knows what the value of a win over Clemson, plus the value of a conference championship will do to their standing.

There’s also Stanford, who has lost twice, but is in position to win the Pac-12 title against USC. The Cardinal have played a demanding schedule—in the non-conference alone, they took on Northwestern and Notre Dame. The Pac-12 also plays nine conference games. On that basis alone, you can justify jumping Stanford over almost any one-loss team (including North Carolina, whom I just argued on behalf of) and certainly over an Ohio State team that did not win its conference title.

We saw last year that the rankings going into the final week aren’t the most important. TCU was ranked #3 and blew out Iowa State in last season’s finale, but Ohio State winning the Big Ten title in impressive fashion and Baylor sealing the Big 12 title against a good Kansas State team caused the Horned Frogs to tumble to #6. Perhaps Ohio State would slip behind a victorious North Carolina or Stanford team after Saturday.

If the Committee is serious about conference championships, that’s what would happen. And everyone, including here in the Big Ten (I live in Wisconsin) is better off if that’s the case. It makes our two-month long league schedule and championship game that much more meaningful.

Then there’s still the question about who goes to the Rose Bowl. After placing the four playoff teams (in either the Orange or Cotton Bowls), the Committee must decide who fills out the other four major bowls that will be played on either December 31 or January 1 (Peach, Fiesta, Rose, Sugar). They’re going to send a Big Ten runner-up to Indianapolis. Would it be Ohio State or the loser of Iowa-Michigan State?

If Iowa loses, I can see choosing Ohio State. Each team would have one loss, the Buckeyes play in the superior division and the team that won that division (Michigan State) would be getting a higher calling to the Playoff. An Ohio State pick here would be reasonable.

But if Michigan State is the loser, than the Spartans deserve the Rose Bowl bid. Yes, MSU would have two losses to Ohio State’s one, but only because they won the division both teams share. We would essentially be penalizing Michigan State for playing a game they had earned solely because they beat Ohio State in Columbus.

In the pre-Committee era, when major bowls made their own decisions on who to invite, this was a common injustice. The loser of a conference championship game was the ugly stepchild of the bowl party. Their fans had already spent money traveling, they were presumably dispirited after a loss (and Spartan fans definitely will be that if they lose Saturday night) and had lost momentum. There’s no question under that old way of doing things, Ohio State would be chosen for the Rose.

If the Committee is serious about rewarding the teams who have earned it, then a defeated Michigan State team still deserves the Rose Bowl prize. The one exception I would make is if both the Spartans and Buckeyes were chosen for a major bowl spot, and the Committee sent Ohio State, since Sparty was just there in 2013 (against Stanford, who could be the Pac-12 opponent again). If that’s the case, no problems since the major bowls all have equal prestige, at least theoretically and definitely monetarily.

The bottom line is this—we watch college football for months, locked in on who’s going to win division titles and conference championships. It serves no one’s interest for the Committee to send a message that it’s all irrelevant. That’s what they would be doing if they chose Ohio State over North Carolina or Stanford for the Playoff, and if they chose the Buckeyes over a two-loss Michigan State for a New Year’s Six bowl spot.

Six Teams Control Their Fate For The College Football Playoff

The focus in College Football Playoff discussions is who’s currently in the Top 4—or “who’s your four?”, to take the most overused question asked of TV analysts over the last two years. The question we should be asking is—who controls their destiny? I count six teams that realistically don’t need to worry about anything beyond their own results—short of temporary insanity on the part of the Selection Committee—to make it into the Playoff…

*Clemson—Coming off their win over Florida State, the Tigers have three easy games left—at Syracuse on Saturday, Wake Forest and at South Carolina. This would be followed by an ACC Championship Game, likely against North Carolina.

The games to circle are at South Carolina—the Gamecocks are bad this year, but they’ll still be at home in a rivalry game against an opponent they’ve usually owned. I’d be surprised if South Carolina didn’t at least keep it interesting.

And don’t overlook that potential date with North Carolina. The Tar Heels have a multi-talented quarterback in Marquise Williams, they’re well-coached under Larry Fedora and as a current one-loss team, could be a darkhorse for the Playoff themselves.

*Alabama—The combination of blowing out LSU and Ole Miss losing, has moved the Crimson Tide into control of their destiny in the SEC West and therefore a Playoff spot, even with one loss.

The Tide has a sneaky tough game in Starkville on Saturday, against Mississippi State. Then they play Charleston Southern, followed by a road date at Auburn. Even though you should never overlook a rivalry road game, I’m going to do that here. Auburn doesn’t have the same kind of positive history against ‘Bama that South Carolina has against Clemson.

An SEC Championship Game with Florida is where the real battle comes in. If Florida can beat Florida State and get to that game with one-loss, it could be a de facto national quarterfinal. I’m not yet sold though that the Gators don’t need some help in a way the more respected Tide do not.

*Ohio State/Iowa—Clearly Ohio State, undefeated and ranked #3, doesn’t need any help. Even though Iowa is currently #5, if they win out and beat the Buckeyes in a national championship game they’re going to vault Notre Dame into the 4-spot, even if the Irish win at Stanford.

I simply don’t believe an undefeated Big Ten champion is going to be left out of the Playoff. I don’t really believe it would happen with any Power 5 conference, but to paraphrase something an Iowa fan told me this week, to do this to someone with the power of Jim Delaney would be akin to crossing Don Corleone.

*Baylor/Oklahoma State—The two undefeateds left in the Big 12 are currently #6 and #8, but with multiple marquee game. Baylor hosts Oklahoma on Saturday and goes to TCU on Black Friday. Okie State still has the Bedlam rivalry game with OU on the Saturday after Thanksgiving. And the Bears and Cowboys play each other on November 21. There’s plenty of juice to get either of these teams into the top four if they run the table.

These six basically underscore what I wrote earlier this week in saying that Notre Dame doesn’t control its fate, even at #4, and even with going to Stanford. The political hit that coming games against Wake Forest and Boston College will give them works in combination with the big opponents other contenders have coming up, including potential conference championship games.

Notre Dame’s still in a good position, as is Stanford. You don’t want to rule out Oklahoma, and I even think there’s a chaos scenario where Michigan sneaks its way in. LSU might not be finished, especially if Alabama gets upset at Mississippi State.

By no means am I saying there won’t be some craziness before it’s over—in fact, I fully expect it. I am saying that Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, Iowa, Baylor and Oklahoma State should just tune it all out and win their games. They’re the only ones who don’t need at least one event beyond their control to make it into the College Football Playoff.

Wait Until After The Bowls To Bracket The College Football Playoff

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I’ve long been an advocate of waiting until after the bowl season to begin a college football playoff, and this season’s results are a vivid demonstration as to why. If we went back to traditional tie-ins for the bowls, then selected four teams when it was over, we would have both a more entertaining system and a fairer bracket. Let me explain why.

Yesterday’s post about Alabama and the SEC West is the most vivid illustration. The SEC West got enormous props, including from me, for just how good they were. They went undefeated in non-conference play in the regular season. But that only includes a handful of games (at best) that are real measuring sticks of league strength. Most of the SEC West’s 28-0 record was piled up in matchups no fan should be required to pay for to watch.
You can’t say the same about the division’s performance in the bowls. At the point of the college football season when everyone is playing a team of similar stature from another league, the SEC West completely flopped, losing five of seven games. But we didn’t know any of this when the four teams for the College Football Playoff were chosen.
College Football HistoryExpanding the bracket to eight teams won’t help—in fact, it will make it worse. The SEC West would have been in position to grab at least one, and perhaps two more spots in the top eight. That’s where a traditional bowl system can work hand-in-hand with the playoff.
The bowls are essentially the first round of a three-round system—it’s an unbracketed, un-seeded round and there’s nothing saying it has to be win-or-go-home, but it would serve a vital role in keeping more teams alive.
Here’s my proposal. Restore all the traditional tie-ins. The Big Ten & Pac-12 go to the Rose, SEC to the Sugar, Big 12 to the Fiesta (or Cotton, if you want to make that change) and ACC to the Orange. The top midmajor is also guaranteed a bid somewhere. The Cotton continues to be a fifth bowl game, albeit without a conference champion.
The playoff qualification rules are this—if you win a conference championship and its accompanying major bowl game, you are automatically in the College Football Playoff. This guarantees that all five major conference champions have a clear path to the playoff. The Big Ten & Pac-12 would play a de facto quarterfinal game every year, and the other three conferences could fill up the other spots and eliminate any debate.
It’s not required though, that a team has to win its bowl game to qualify. If a team is #1 in the country and loses a heartbreaker in the bowl game, you can still certainly place them in the playoff as a lower seed. In fact, had the SEC West lived up to its reputation this bowl season, Alabama would have been a perfect example of a 1-seed that could survive a close loss.
The committee should also make it very clear that how a conference performs in the bowl season is going to impact how its teams are viewed if there ends up being debate over any spots in the bracket. No more excuses given how teams weren’t fired up to play in a bowl game. Their conference brethren will be holding their feet to the fire and debate over how each game should affect the selection process will keep talk shows full of material for a few weeks.
Here’s an example of how the major bowls might have looked this year. The automatic spots are in bold. The other teams are how I would match them up, but that’s of course subject to your own creative thinking. And with all due respect to the Peach Bowl, I’ve tossed them out of this process. Five big bowl games is enough, at least for sorting out the playoff teams.
Sugar: Alabama-TCU
Rose: Ohio State-Oregon
Fiesta: Baylor-Michigan State
Orange: Florida State-Ole Miss
Cotton: Boise State-Miss State
The Rose Bowl would almost always be the marquee matchup, a guaranteed play-in game either way. The Sugar would not be far behind, as there would be a big push for TCU if they could beat Alabama, with the only question being what conference champion they could displace. Let’s say the Horned Frogs beat the Tide in a close game, while Michigan State beats Baylor, as actually happened on the field this year. Then Baylor is out, while both TCU and Alabama could qualify.

You can also argue that, based on what we knew about Alabama and the SEC West prior to the bowls (when we thought they were great), that the Tide should get an easier game. Then you shift TCU to the Orange to play Florida State in a clear de facto quarterfinal game.
The matchups of course are subject to debate and personal preference. The strength of this system is that we wait until we have a real read on conference strength before bracketing and seeding teams. And even though these games aren’t an official “playoff”, it’s essentially the first stage of a three-round fight. Even better in fact, because there are a lot more variables in play and if you structure the matchups right, you could make all five games have playoff implications (just shift TCU to the Cotton), rather than just four.
Then there’s the question of when to play the semi-finals and championship game. The date and times are easy. You play the semis on the same weekend as the second round of the NFL playoffs. There’s an open TV time slot in the early afternoon window on Saturday and prime-time on Sunday. Then the national championship would be played in the off-week prior to the Super Bowl.
Everybody wins—college football retains the best of its great traditions, while not compromising the need for settling the championship on the field, giving every conference champion a chance and providing a TV bonanza. A traditional bowl system followed by a four-team College Football Playoff is the way to go.

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Did Alabama Belong In The College Football Playoff?

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It didn’t take long for the “TCU made a statement” and “TCU proved they belonged in the College Football Playoff” rhetoric to ratchet up after the Horned Frogs demolished Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl on New Year’s Eve. TCU’s backers in the national media were ready to pounce.

All that was required was for the presumptive demolition of Ohio State at the hands of Alabama to take place the following night in the Sugar Bowl. Only that didn’t turn out as expected and the crusade never caught fire. Why? How about subjecting Alabama to the same kind of post-bowl scrutiny that Ohio State surely would have?
Let me begin by saying that I think the College Football Playoff committee got the right four teams and felt that way as soon as the matchups were unveiled. I’m not a believer in the notion that teams prove their worthiness after the fact. TCU lost head-to-head to Baylor, and as far as I’m concerned that settles who the Big 12 candidate is.
Baylor played a lousy non-conference schedule, while Ohio State at least went out and played bowl teams in Navy and Virginia Tech. I would have been fine with either the Bears or Buckeyes going, but ask me to pick who the fourth team should be and I would have voted for Ohio State.
College Football HistoryBut with that said, if I was ready to pounce on Ohio State if they lost, I’d certainly have been ready to shift gears and question whether Alabama ever belonged in the playoff field to begin with. Why do the Tide get a pass? The bowl season established that the SEC West, far from being on a level just below the NFC West, was in fact incredibly overrated.
This side of the SEC went 2-5 in bowl play. They did not match up with the rest of the country. Yet Alabama was unable to go undefeated against this group of teams. Say what you will about Florida State’s schedule, but at least they won them all. And in any case, if a playoff can’t include a defending national champion that hasn’t lost in two years, then what is exactly the point of having a bracket?
If we’re going to do some second-guessing, it’s Alabama whose inclusion is now debatable. They played in what we now know to be a subpar division, didn’t go undefeated and were quickly exposed on the national stage.
Of course no one could have known this prior to the bowl season. That’s why we should look at starting the playoffs after the bowls, when there’s a much better read on what conferences are really the strongest. But that’s a subject for another day.

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ANALYSIS & HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE FROM AROUND THE SPORTS WORLD

 

Why Can't Marshall Get A Chance In The College Football Playoff?

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The top three teams in the College Football Playoff seem pretty well locked in, so long as they take care of business down the stretch. Those teams would be Alabama, Oregon and Florida State. Right now, Mississippi State has a hold of the 4-spot, with TCU, Baylor and Ohio State giving chase. But why can’t undefeated Marshall get the opportunity for this final berth in the College Football Playoff?

Marshall is 11-0, and joins Florida State as the only unbeaten teams at the FBS level. I understand that the Thundering Herd have not played a good schedule. I understand that any of Mississippi State, TCU, Baylor and Ohio State would likely beat them on the field. But I don’t know that for sure, and I also thought in 2006 that Oklahoma would crush this no-name Boise State team in the Fiesta Bowl. That’s why I fail to see the harm in giving Marshall a fair chance to test their perfect record on the field.
MarshallWhat I find annoying about this situation is that I thought one of the purposes in expanding the playoffs from a single championship game to a four-team format, was to be able to give opportunities to teams in Marshall’s situation. I understood that you couldn’t give an undefeated team from a midmajor conference an easy pass into the national title game and let them possibly win it all, by having one magical night. But if they beat two good teams in succession, within a two-week span, that would be something different.
The advocates of a playoff certainly exploited situations like Boise State, or Utah back in 2008, whenever they wanted to point out the flaws of the old system. And now we’re already hearing that four teams isn’t enough, and we need to go to an eight-team or even a 16-team bracket. Undoubtedly we’ll again hear that giving the little guy a chance is one of the reasons.
But the College Football Playoff Selection Committee won’t even rank Marshall in the Top 25. If that’s the case, why do we need eight teams in the field—so four from the SEC West can advance? Or a 16-team playoff that would probably have six SEC teams in the bracket? What exactly is the point of the SEC playing an eight-game conference schedule plus a championship game if everyone’s just going to advance anyway?
The problem with the old system wasn’t that you had to argue over which one-loss team should play for the national championship. The problem with the old system is that when it came to a team like Marshall, there were no good solutions. You either told an undefeated team that nothing they could ever do on the field was going to get them a shot at the national championship. Or you allowed them into the actual title game itself without being properly tested.
Changing to a four-team format should have fixed that problem, not just shifted our arguing over which one-loss team from the power conferences down a couple spots in the rankings. Put Marshall in the field and if they win two straight against the likes of Florida State, Alabama and Oregon, they’re national champions. If they lose, then the Big Three that no one disputes are championship-worthy, can settle it. I ask again—what’s wrong with that?

College Football Playoff Talk: Let’s Do A Traditional Plus-One

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College football is closing in on an expanded playoff, as the conference continue deliberation for some type of “plus-one” setup, where an additional game would be added after the completion of the bowls. One of the first debates was whether the new format would have two bowls serve as national semi-finals in a four-team playoff or if conferences would go to their traditional tie-ins and then select the top two teams when the dust had settled. By all accounts, advocates of the four-team playoff have won this first level of debate. I believe that is a mistake.

I term this new proposal an “expanded playoff”, because contrary to popular view, we already do have a playoff. We guarantee that 1 vs. 2 will play at the end of the season and the winner will be the national champion. It might not be an NCAA-sanctioned bracket like the basketball or baseball tournaments are, and if the AP really wanted to, they could vote a different team as their national champ. But in the eyes of the college football world the BCS National Championship Game is the title game.

That semantical debate aside, I believe college football is strengthened, not weakened, by the concept of a conference having one bowl game that serves as the prize for its members, regardless of whether they are national title contenders. Having grown up in the Midwest, the pride the Big Ten took in the Rose Bowl was obvious and the Pac-10 felt the same way. There was tradition with the SEC in the Sugar Bowl.  The potential for the new Big 12 to develop that same feeling to the Fiesta Bowl was real, as was the case with the ACC and the Orange (in years past, the old Big Eight went to the Orange and the ACC was non-aligned).

I liked the old alignments enough to write a book, The Last New Year’s, celebrating not just the bowl tie-ins, but the whole concept of playing all the season’s biggest games on January 1 and turning it into a college football feast. We still have the glut of games, but the impact is gone. But the controversies were enough that I also believe the sport badly needed a true championship game, something to give a real finish to the season.

If we play the national title game after a traditional bowl schedule, we make it possible that as many as three, four, and in the wildest circumstances, even five games can matter in the race for the national championship. If we play all these bowl games on January 1, we give the sport an all-day feast enjoyed nowhere else in sports. It’s the best of both worlds—while maintaining and developing the tradition each conference feels for its bowl game, we create a more exciting national championship process.

Furthermore, this proposal—rather than a 4-team playoff—is most likely to give justice to the non-BCS teams that were given short shrift in the days of old and still are today. Critics of Boise State say their schedule isn’t good enough to merit being in the top two—do you really think they’re going to have a sudden change of heart and put them in the top four? To do so last year would have required that you bounce one of the following: LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State or Oregon. There’s no way any of the first three are being left out, unless we have a rule on prohibiting non-conference champs. Although even then, Wisconsin probably substitutes for ‘Bama. While Boise would get more people willing to give them a shot over Oregon/Wisconsin, the computer rankings aren’t going to like the Broncos’ schedule any more than they do now, and elitist observers aren’t going to suddenly go all populist.

But if you have a traditional bowl structure, you can put Boise to the test before committing to them. Last year’s matchups would have had LSU tied to the Sugar, Oklahoma State in the Fiesta and Wisconsin-Oregon in the Rose.  For the sake of discussion let’s Boise had finished unbeaten rather than missing a late field goal against TCU. If that’s the case, send them to the Sugar to play LSU. If the Broncos win that game, no one’s going to argue they don’t deserve to play for the whole thing. If they lose it, no one can say they didn’t get a fair crack. And from an entertainment standpoint, we can watch them play on New Year’s Day in a major bowl rather than go up against 6-6 Arizona State like they did a year ago. Once again, it’s the best of all worlds.

Finally, the system I propose gives college football a perfect three-tiered postseason. We start on the first Saturday of December with all the conference championship games. Then we move up to January 1 and the bowl games. If you look at the scenario I outlined above, that would be two games with direct implications on the national championship chase, with Wisconsin-Oregon hoping for a chance to argue their case over non-conference champ Alabama if the Tide beat Oklahoma State (We’ll save the arguments over league champs vs. runner-ups for next week). Then throw in two more appetizer games—the Orange and one other bowl that we’d elevate to top-tier status to get 10 teams on January 1. When it all sorted out, we’d move to the off-week just prior to the Super Bowl and play the national championship game. In an ideal world, college football could even play it at the same site as the Super Bowl and turn one city into the football mecca of the world.

Or what we could do is have a four-team playoff where no one watches anything but two bowls, and have three of the four teams be from the SEC. I’m sure that’s what SEC commissioner Mike Slive wants and what conference fans are angling for. Rumor has it Slive also insists that baseball only televise the Yankees-Red Sox games, that college basketball center on North Carolina-Duke and that Kobe & LeBron be the only NBA players to get screen time. Yes, by all means let’s go that route. Opening things up with a cutting edge mix of traditionalist bowls with a modern championship game would be too much fun for the entire country.