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Fiesta Bowl Preview: Oregon-Kansas State

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On the night of November 17, Kansas State and Oregon were eyeing up a showdown with each other, holding the top two spots in the polls and each undefeated. The national championship dream died for both that evening, but if you thought the Wildcats and Ducks were really the best two in the country all along, you get your wish. They meet in tonight’s Fiesta Bowl. Let’s track the paths each team walked on the road to Glendale and how they match up.

Oregon has been remarkably consistent, given they were breaking in a new quarterback in redshirt freshman Marcus Mariota. The Ducks played a deceptively good schedule in the early part of the season, taking on bowl teams in Arkansas State and Fresno State, and dropping a combined 99 points on both. A tuneup win over Tennessee Tech sent them into Pac-12 play with their running game, led by Kejon Barner, already in gear.

The Ducks established their identity in jumping out to a 5-0 start in conference games. They amassed huge rushing yardage edges, while Mariota was efficient in the passing game. The quarterback would go on to complete 70 percent of his passes, get a respectable eight yards per attempt and put up a dazzling 30/6 TD-INT ratio. Oregon blew out competitive teams in Arizona and Washington, handled Arizona State on the road with ease and only a poor defensive first half against Washington State marred this stretch of games.

Oregon then went to USC for a much-anticipated prime-time affair and if you like offense, there was a lot to like about this game from the Los Angeles Coliseum. Oregon destroyed the Trojan defense, with Barner getting 321 yards by himself. Mariota completed 21/23 and tossed four touchdowns. Even though the Duck defense was shredded by Matt Barkley, Oregon won 62-51 and had USC at arm’s length most of the game.

A 59-17 win at Cal said that everything was rolling along for the stretch drive, but a warning sign appeared in Berkeley. Cal had success running the ball—since Mariota threw for 377 yards and six touchdowns, it didn’t matter, but it was surely noticed by a physical team in Stanford. One week later the Cardinal came to Eugene, played the Ducks even up and pulled a 17-14 upset in overtime. The win took Oregon out of titles at both the national and conference level, although to their credit, they didn’t sulk. Oregon came back and played a complete football game in dismantling a quality Oregon State team on the road to close the season.

Kansas State played one good non-conference opponent in Miami, sandwiched around tuneup games with Missouri State and North Texas. The Wildcats rolled to a fast 3-0 start and blasted the Hurricanes 52-13. While we identify Collin Klein with this offense, it was running back John Hubert that set the tone early in the year in controlling games on the ground.

On September 22, K-State showed the country what it was made of when they went to Oklahoma, played an excellent defensive game and won 24-19. Klein was tough and efficient, but again Hubert was a key, as he ran for 130 yards. There was no letup following, as the Wildcats hung 56 points on in-state rival Kansas.

Now it was time to settle into the long Big 12 slog. With the head-to-head win over the Sooners, Kansas State controlled the conference race, but in a deep league where you play everybody, the schedule didn’t allow for any weeks off. Over the next five games, we saw Klein completely outplay early Heisman frontrunner Geno Smith of West Virginia, the Wildcats score a combined 99 points in wins over bowl-bound Texas Tech and Oklahoma State and churn out a win at TCU.

But we also saw Hubert all but disappear from the offense, and the team become increasingly dependent on Klein to carry both the running and passing games. We then saw Klein get hurt against Oklahoma State, the ‘Cats look a little sluggish offensively in the TCU win and finally the roof fell in during a shocking 52-24 loss to Baylor. Now the Bears have proven to be much better than anyone thought even then, continuing to close the regular season strong and hammering UCLA in a bowl game. But that explanation only flies if you lose by a four points, not by four touchdowns.

Kansas State, like Oregon, showed character in its final game and didn’t act like playing for goals other than the national title was somehow beneath them. Klein carried the offense against Texas, the Longhorns gave them some turnovers and with a 42-24 win, K-State won its first league title since 2003.

Now we come to Thursday night in the desert. I don’t believe Kansas State can win unless they have someone other than Klein run the ball effectively. The Wildcat passing game has made solid strides throughout the year and Klein spreads the ball well among Chris Harper, Tyler Lockett and Tramaine Thompson. But it’s asking too much for Klein to do everything himself, particularly against an offense of this caliber.

For Oregon, I think staying patient offensively is going to be crucial. Kansas State’s defense played well against a high-powered attack in Oklahoma, the Wildcats were very effective keeping West Virginia’s Smith throwing the ball underneath and other than the train wreck game against Baylor, K-State has played solid defense, If Mariota stays high-percentage in the passing game and Oregon keeps attacking the edges, they’ll eventually get their points. They just can’t let Kansas State take them out of the gameplan by creating frustration.

I believe Kansas State will succeed in moderating the tempo of the game, but in the end, they don’t have the weapons to win this game. The big intangible lurking here is the rumors surrounding Chip Kelly’s NFL future—it’s the kind of distraction that results in a team losing bowl games. I’m going to give Oregon the benefit of the doubt and pick them to win, but my regard for K-State and a lingering concern about the Kelly distractions make me unwilling to give 8 ½ points with the Ducks.

Outright Winner: Oregon
Pointspread Winner: Kansas State (+8.5)
Totals Line: Under 75.5


BOWL HANDICAPPING RECORD THROUGH JANUARY 1*
Outright Winners: 15-13
Pointspread Winners: 11-16-1
Totals Line: 15-13
*Did not pick Rose Bowl, due to fan bias towards Wisconsin
*Article published prior to conclusion of the Sugar Bowl

Fiesta Bowl Preview: Oklahoma State-Stanford

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Monday night’s Fiesta Bowl (8:30 PM ET, ESPN) is the best of the four BCS bowl matchups that lead up to the national championship game a week from tonight, as Oklahoma State meets up with Stanford. For Okie State, it’s a chance to send a message to voters who preferred giving Alabama a second chance at LSU rather than sending the Cowboys to New Orleans. For Stanford, it’s the final college game for Andrew Luck, the most anticipated NFL prospect I can recall. Here’s the summation of how each team got here and how they matchup…

Oklahoma State (11-1): Oklahoma State didn’t play heavyweights in their three weeks of non-conference play, but they fatten up on pastry either. UL-Lafayette and Tulsa were both bowl teams, while Arizona brought one the country’s top quarterbacks in Nick Foles for a Thursday night game. OSU quarterback Brandon Weeden let it be known early on this was going to be a prolific year. He went over 350 yards in all three games, while running back Joseph Randle cleared the 120 mark in each one. The Cowboy offense would never stop firing.

You couldn’t be as confident with the defense, which gave up big chunks of rushing yardage, particularly to Tulsa, who blasted them for 365 yards on the ground. It was a cause for concern as Okie State entered a four-game stretch in which they would play road games at Texas A&M, Texas and Missouri. Weeden gunned down all three, including a big comeback against the Aggies, with over 1,000 yards passing combined. While Justin Blackmon was his primary receiver, secondaries couldn’t lock in on him, as Weeden consistently involved an array of receivers into the offense, a pattern that would continue throughout the year. While the problems defending the run didn’t go away, the Cowboy secondary was turning into a ball-hawking unit, getting three interceptions apiece in all three road wins, which were sandwiched around a 70-28 blasting of Kansas at home.

In the Big 12, there’s no rest for the victorious and coming home meant Baylor and Kansas State were waiting. Blackmon had two huge games, catching 26 passes for 377 yards, as the offense put up 111 points in a pair of dazzling wins. Randle kept churning out yardage on the ground, as you couldn’t focus in on just one part of the Oklahoma State offense, lest another part bury you. While Oklahoma was still considered the top dog in the Big 12 at the time, it would be K-State and Baylor that would finish second and third in the league respectively, so in retrospect this was the point of the season were the Cowboys secured a conference title.

They were thinking a lot bigger, sitting at #2 in the national polls. But on a Friday morning they were to play Iowa State, tragedy struck the Oklahoma State community. A plane carrying the woman’s basketball coach and his assistant crashed and a pall went over everyone involved with the game. To this day, I believe the game should’ve been suspended until at least the next day, but with ESPN’s cameras on hand for a Friday night exclusive that wasn’t happening. The Cowboys looked flat, Weeden threw three interceptions and the Cyclones won in double overtime. To their enormous credit, no one associated with Oklahoma State has ever used the tragedy as an excuse for the loss. But those of us who are in the outside can exercise some common sense and say that it had to have affected. They played the game the same day the news was reported!  In the end, though it may have cost Oklahoma State a national title shot, they have their honor intact, knowing they didn’t use the deaths of those close to them as a way of angling out sympathy votes for a national title game berth.

Oklahoma State still got a Fiesta Bowl bid when they destroyed Oklahoma 44-10 in the season finale, with their secondary continuing to play well and Randle having a big game on the ground. It may not have gotten into the BCS National Championship Game, but I wouldn’t expect a letdown—it’s the program’s first major bowl bid since the 1945 Cotton Bowl, when they matched up with St. Mary’s (CA).

Stanford (11-1): Even with the departure of head coach Jim Harbaugh to the NFL, the return of Andrew Luck had everyone abuzz about Cardinal football and Luck gave little reason for anyone to question his undisputed status as not only the #1 pick in the NFL draft, but the best QB prospect in a generation. In a year where the NFL produced outstanding quarterback seasons from Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees, it’s not too much to suggest that Luck’s presence in the NFL this year matched both of them, as lower-level teams raced for the bottom.

On the football field in Palo Alto, Luck’s current team opened with easy wins over San Jose State and Duke, in which the basic offensive formula was established. Luck hit a high percentage of his throws, made few mistakes and spread the ball around, while getting 75-100 yards of ground support from Stephan Taylor. It set the stage for five easy wins to start the Pac-12 schedule. Stanford cruised past Arizona, UCLA, Colorado, Washington State and then hung 65 points on Washington. Luck threw 14 touchdown passes in these games against only two interceptions. The Stanford defense was respectable, if not overwhelming and Taylor had four 100-yard games.

Next up was a prime-time battle in Los Angeles against USC and it proved to be another one of college football’s memorable battles of 2011, right up there with Wisconsin-Michigan State‘s regular season game. This one went triple overtime before Stanford won 56-48. Luck outplayed Barkley, but Stanford committed 11 penalties, a circumstance they can’t afford to repeat tonight in the Fiesta Bowl.

After an easy win over Oregon State, it was time for an anticipated showdown with Oregon to settle the Pac-12 North and keep the Cardinal on track for an appearance in the BCS National Championship game. Playing at home for a prime-time audience, Stanford came up with a dud. They lost three fumbles and turned it over five times overall. Luck completed 27 of 41 passes, but Oregon effectively kept him underneath, making those completions add up to just 256 yards. Stanford couldn’t stop LaMichael James on the ground and they were beaten badly, 53-30.

To the credit of head coach David Shaw, he kept his team focused for challenging games against improving Cal and Notre Dame to end the season, both of which Stanford needed if they wanted to make a major bowl game. The Cardinal didn’t play their best game in either spot, but they were good enough to beat decent teams and the rush defense was solid both times out.

The Matchup: The Weeden-Luck showdown is what gets the media attention and I see the logic. But what I’m watching is the Randle-Taylor matchup. While Stanford played good rush defense against above average teams, they couldn’t handle James, and if I’m Mike Gundy I absolutely think my running game is as good as Oregon’s. In the case of Oklahoma State, when you have a team that can’t stop the run, while intercepting passes left and right, doesn’t that make committing to the ground an obvious choice? Taylor is one of the more underrated backs in the country and Stanford’s physical nature is also underappreciated. If it’s me, I’m pounding him early on and opening things up for Luck. As is the case with today’s Rose Bowl, Las Vegas is expecting a shootout and the Over/Under is slotted at 74. I like Oklahoma State to get the win. The ability of the secondary to create some mistakes, combined with the general superiority of play in the Big 12 make the Cowboys the pick here.

 

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