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NBA Championship Betting Odds

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It’s playoff time in the NBA, starting on Saturday, and if the NBA championship betting odds are to be believed, only five of the 16 teams have a serious chance to win the championship and three of those five stand above the class.

The reputation of the NBA is being a league where you’re the champ until your crown is knocked off is affirmed by the prices below. The Miami Heat haven’t looked the part of a champion for at least three months, and in spite of the best effort of the Indiana Pacers to give away the #1 seed in the East, the Heat couldn’t take it. Nonethless, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh come into the postseason as the 19-10 favorite to win a third straight title.


San Antonio posted the best record in the NBA and came within a missed free throw or a defensive rebound from winning the championship in 2013. The Spurs come in at 3-1, and the Oklahoma City Thunder aren’t far behind at 19-5 (slightly less than 4-1).

The track record of the NBA as one where the chalk rules probably narrows the championship race to these three, but the Pacers and the Los Angeles Clippers still have enough respect in Las Vegas to give them a puncher’s chance, particularly since Indiana does have that aforementioned top seed in the East. Indiana is 8-1, while Doc Rivers and the Clips are 10-1.

If this were the NHL, where upset champions happened, it would be worthwhile to dig deeper, particularly with teams like Houston, Brooklyn and Chicago still on the board. But the history of the NBA tells us that while this teams might be carrying a bigger price tag than they should, wagering them to win the championship would be throwing your money away.

READ THE COMPLETE BLOG COLLECTION OF THE 2013 NBA SEASON & PLAYOFFS
Download Summer Heat from Amazon today

Here’s the complete list of NBA championship betting odds for all 16 playoff teams. TheSportsNotebook’s coverage of the playoffs will begin in earnest over Friday and Saturday morning (the first game tips at 12:30 PM ET on Saturday). We’ll have a “Tale of the Tape” that will summarize each playoff team and then a brief look at the specific first-round matchups.

Miami: 19-10
San Antonio: 3-1
Oklahoma City: 19-5

Indiana: 8-1
LA Clippers: 10-1

Houston: 30-1
Brooklyn: 35-1
Chicago: 45-1
Portland: 50-1
Golden State: 60-1
Memphis: 85-1
Toronto: 100-1
Dallas: 120-1
Washington: 150-1
Charlotte: 200-1
Atlanta: 950-1 

NBA Win Futures Report

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The NBA regular season is in the books, and it’s time to review how the NBA win futures turned out—how each team performed against its Over/Under win expectation in Las Vegas at the start of the season.

I’ve broken the league down into three categories—landslides, where a team made or missed its number by double digits. Then the decisive category, where a team was 2.5 games or more away from the number. Then we close with those on the margin, within a game and a half either way.


One of the things I like the most about this mode of analysis is that it usually exposes teams that whose disappointments got hidden—maybe it was a team expected to be a little below .500 and therefore off the media radar. But they end up being absolutely terrible. It doesn’t affect national coverage, but if you’re a fan there’s a big difference between rooting for a team that goes 40-42 and one that goes 20-62. The Over/Under results expose that.

Here’s the breakdown, with comments following each section. Each team’s margin against the number is listed, followed by their actual won-loss record. The last letter is a full disclosure note. TheSportsNotebook made public selections on all these teams back in October, and that indicates whether I won or lost the pick.

READ THE COMPLETE BLOG COLLECTION OF THE 2013 NBA SEASON & PLAYOFFS
Download Summer Heat from Amazon today

THE LANDSLIDES

Phoenix: +27 (48-34), W
Charlotte: +16.5 (43-39), L
Portland: +15.5 (54-28), W
Toronto: +12 (48-34), L

Denver: -10.5 (36-46), W
Detroit: -11 (29-53), W
New York: -12.5 (37-45), W
Milwaukee: -13.5 (15-67), L

Comments: Phoenix was in the playoff picture in the West all year long, so even though they ended up just missing, they at least got credit for their amazing overachievement all year, a landslide winner even when measured against fellow landslides. Milwaukee had no expectations coming into the year and still managed to be the league’s biggest disappointment against the number. The ownership change announced yesterday can’t take effect soon enough.

The teams that are basically exposed here are Detroit and Denver. The Pistons were supposed to at least be in the conversation for the playoffs, especially in the East. The Nuggets had some trepidation, after a coaching change, but this is a team that was the 3rd-best in the West last season and never even sniffed playoff contention this time around.

Of course this doesn’t mean New York is off the hook, but I highly doubt you needed an Over/Under win summary to know the Knicks haven’t met expectations.

DECISIVE

San Antonio: +7.5 (62-20), L
Dallas: +5.5 (49-33), L
Washington: +5.5 (44-38), L
Oklahoma City: +4.5 (59-23), W
Philadelphia: +2.5 (19-63), W

Sacramento: -4 (28-54), W
Boston: -5 (25-57), L
New Orleans: -6.5 (34-48), W
Cleveland: -7 (33-49), W
Miami: -7.5 (54-28), W
Brooklyn: -8 (44-38), W
LA Lakers: -8 (27-55), L
Chicago: -8.5 (48-34), W

Comments: I really should re-think the numerical criteria for this group, because anything that calls the 76ers “decisively” Over has to be flawed, doesn’t it? Then again, it does make you wonder—how bad did people really think Philly was going to be? They went on a historic losing streak, got universal condemnation for tanking and still ended up beating the number with room to spare.

A big congratulations to Greg Popovich, Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs. To beat a big number is hard enough, especially with a veteran team. The Spurs not only did it, they went Over by a lot. Miami, Brooklyn and Chicago all faltered against big numbers although I think these are all classic cases of public money driving numbers on popular teams too high to be realistic.

ON THE MARGINS

LA Clippers: +1.5 (57-25), L
Indiana: +0.5 (56-26), W
Golden State: -0.5 (51-31), W
Orlando: -0.5 (23-59), L
Utah: 0 (25-57), P
Minnesota: -1 (40-42), W
Houston: -1 (54-28), W
Atlanta: -1.5 (38-44), L
Memphis: -1.5 (50-32), L

Comments: Indiana and Orlando played head-to-head last night, with the right to claim an Over on the line. It makes you wish Brent Musberger and Charles Barkley could have called the game—these are the only two guys in the broadcasting world who would have appreciated the gambling implications.

TheSportsNotebook finished with a nice 17-12-1 record this year. I do the win futures predictions in the NBA, MLB and the NFL, and this was a needed good run after a tough year in the NFL last season. I’m just as proud of the fact that the winning record wasn’t built on the marginal teams going my way—I was 4-4-1 on the nine teams that were basically coin flips. I’ll enjoy this while it lasts, which in the world of handicapping, is never very long.