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NFC West race

Are The Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl-Caliber?

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It’s a big week for the Seattle Seahawks. If they take care of business against the Buffalo Bills in a road-neutral game at Toronto, while the San Francisco 49ers lose to the New England Patriots on Sunday night in Foxboro, it would mean that the Seahawks control their own destiny to win the NFC West. This is a team that’s coming on strong and with a road win over Chicago, followed by a 58-0 smackdown of Arizona, is it time to start taking Seattle seriously as a true Super Bowl threat, rather than just a pleasant playoff team?

Seattle’s offense is very efficient. They run the ball frequently, second-most in the NFL and they do it well, still ranking 8th in yards-per-attempt. The reason is Marshawn Lynch, with his 1,266 yards. Seattle plays it close to the vest in the passing game, attempting the fewest passes in the league, but rookie quarterback Russell Wilson has made his throws count, hitting 63% and ranking a solid seventh in yards-per-attempt. This team takes good care of the ball and when you put that all together it makes them an efficient, if unspectacular offense, that can still come from behind if they need to.

The defense has a good reputation in the Pacific Northwest and that’s mostly justified. They get after the quarterback, with defensive end Chris Clemons leading a pass rush that’s tied for 10th in the NFL in sacks, and the coverage as a whole ranks high both in terms of forcing incompletions and making sure the balls that are caught go for minimal yardage. Consequently, teams don’t bother much with trying to throw the ball on this team. They’re missing Brandon Browner at corner right now, but he’ll be back for the playoff, and combined with Richard Sherman, they give the Seahawks the best corner duo in the game.

All of this makes Seattle a bona fide contender and we can add to the fact their kickoff return game is excellent. But not all is rosy. As physical as the defense is, they don’t defend the run particularly well, ranking only 21st. It’s something of a mystery why teams don’t run the ball more on Seattle and if a team like the 49ers or Giants decide to try and muscle up, it’s going to be a big challenge for Pete Carroll’s defense.

And when we look at the offense, is the fact they’re tied for seventh in sacks allowed a good thing or a bad thing? The ranking is good, but considering they throw less often than anyone else and have an extremely mobile quarterback, does it really speak well of the pass protection that they don’t rank higher? This adds to the question mark of whether Wilson could maintain his efficiency if he found himself in a quick 17-7 hole in a playoff game.

Finally, while the kick return game is outstanding, the rest of the special teams is lacking, with subpar rankings in coverage of both kickoffs and punts, and in punt returns. When you play the style Seattle wants to play—run the ball, play with a lead, pressure the quarterback—every little edge is huge, and the potential of giving up some field position on special teams is a good way to lose a heartbreaker in January.

The biggest issue—both pro and con—with Seattle is their home/road dichotomy. This is an oft-commented feature about the Seahawks, so I won’t spill a lot of ink on stuff you likely already know. But the dominance of Seattle at home—where they’re 6-0—vis-à-vis their play on the road, where they’re 2-5 is absolutely real. The home resume includes wins over New England, Dallas and a pseudo-win over Green Bay (the fiasco that ended the officials’ lockout in Week 3). The road resume includes losses at St. Louis, Miami and Detroit, and for that reason even a game like Sunday against Buffalo can’t be counted on. Conversely, if the Seahawks play the 49ers for first place on Sunday night in Week 16, do you really want to bet against Seattle at home?

Seattle is coming on strong—two of their losses, along with the should-have-been loss to Green Bay came in September, and it was just two weeks ago they answered a lot of critics with the big road win at Chicago. So to bring it back to our original question of whether the Seahawks are Super Bowl-caliber, I’m going to come down in the mealy-mouthed middle. On the negative, there is no way they’ll go on the road and win three in a row, or even two in a row. Its imperative they win the NFC West and get the #2 seed, ensuring they’d only need one road win, presumably the NFC Championship Game in Atlanta.

Matchups are going to be important as well. Seattle will fare better against a pass-heavy team like Atlanta or Green Bay, rather than a team willing to test them on the ground. This is another reason why I think they could win on the road in Atlanta. If Seattle grabs the #2 seed and gets the right matchup, they can get to the Super Bowl. But they aren’t a team that’s so good that just getting into the bracket is all that matters.

NFL Playoff Projections: Washington & Seattle’s Path To Division Titles

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The division races in the NFC East & NFC West had seemed set in stone for a few weeks. The New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers would win, and the only question was whether either of them would get a #2 playoff seed and first-round bye, or perhaps chase down the Atlanta Falcons for homefield advantage. After road losses in Week 13, both divisions are not only back in play, but you can make a good case that the favorites are going to let them slip away.

New York, after losing 17-16 in Washington last night, is at 7-5 and one game ahead of the Redskins & Cowboys. The Giants still play road games with Atlanta and Baltimore. If we play the chalk and assume the home team will win, that drops Tom Coughlin’s team to 9-7. Then look at the Washington schedule—while they play Baltimore next week, it’s a home game. Then its two road games, but at Cleveland and at Philadelphia. Then they close the season at home with Dallas.

If Washington splits its next two against the AFC opponents, and then sweeps the two NFC East games—and those are eminently reasonable goals given the way Robert Griffin III is playing right now—then the Redskins also get to 9-7 and they would win the tiebreaker with the Giants. The teams split head-to-head, but this scenario presumes Washington would have swept the Eagles & Cowboys, while New York had their Week 1 loss to Dallas, meaning a superior division record gives the Redskins the division crown.

The Cowboys would still be a factor here as well, although I want to see them win at Cincinnati before taking a more positive outlook on their chances down the stretch. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they win home games with Pittsburgh and New Orleans in Weeks 15 & 16—but that’s a big benefit of the doubt and if you combine those two games with Cincinnati, Dallas would have to sweep them to be in position to win the NFC East in Washington for the season finale.

Yes, I am a Redskins fan and I’m seeing the world through burgundy-and-gold glasses, and I’ve sucking up all the RG3 Kool-Aid I can find. But I also think if you do the math on a week-by-week basis, it really does seem as though the NFC East is now Washington’s for the taking.

Before you immediately say the Giants always find a way to win when it counts, remember this—while that might have been the case in 2007 & 2011, it wasn’t the case in 2009 & 2010, both years they stayed home for the playoffs. This franchise has had two improbable January runs, but it’s not as though they’re an infallible machine in every big spot over the last five years. They’ve got to go at least 3-1 down the stretch and the schedule says that won’t be easy.

Now we move to the NFC West, with its two overtime upsets. St. Louis knocked off San Francisco, while Russell Wilson led Seattle to a win in Chicago. Neither was a shocker, but I don’t know that you’d have expected the parlay to come through. If you look at the standings, you still see the 49ers, at 8-3-1 with a full game and a half lead on the 7-5 Seahawks. But let’s dig a little deeper.

Seattle has a very manageable schedule the rest of the way. They play home games with Arizona and St. Louis and we know how good this team is at home. The road is a tougher sell, but the only road trip is to Buffalo. Is it unthinkable to suggest that  a team which wins in Chicago can win in Buffalo? Then look at San Francisco—while we can concede the 49ers will take care of Miami & Arizona at home, are we ready to concede they’ll beat New England in Foxboro in two weeks?

If you assume Seattle wins out, while San Francisco loses in New England, that means the division comes down to a 49ers-Seahawks head-to-head battle in Week 16. Where’s that game at? Seattle. I’m not going against the Seahawks at home against anybody.

Maybe by this time next week, I’ll wonder what I was thinking, but right now I’m making the dramatic altering of my NFL playoff projections to say that Washington & Seattle are winning division titles—indeed, at 11-5, I’ve got Seattle taking a first-round bye, and New York is missing the playoffs. Here’s how I see the NFC shaking out…

NFC East: Washington
NFC North: Green Bay
NFC South: Atlanta
NFC West: Seattle
Wild-Cards: San Francisco, Chicago
1st-Round Byes: Atlanta (1), Seattle (2)
1st-Round Matchups: (5)San Francisco at (4)Washington, (6)Chicago at (3)Green Bay)

The AFC is a little tamer. I’m going to stick with Baltimore for the first-round bye behind Houston. Right now the Ravens are at 9-3 and tied with New England and Denver, and a head-to-head game between the Ravens and Broncos looms on the schedule. That game is in Baltimore, who has a home-friendly schedule and while I’ve never been sold on this team all year, I don’t think they’ll repeat their inexcusable showing on Sunday against Pittsburgh and Charlie Batch.

And as impressive as the Steelers were, I’ve still got Indianapolis and Cincinnati holding on to the two wild-card berths. The wins of the Colts & Bengals didn’t get the same kind of media attention and of themselves they weren’t as impressive. But Indy’s game at Detroit, and Cincinnati’s battle out west in San Diego were the kind of games that often sinks playoff hopefuls. They trailed on the road late and in each case rallied to win.

Indianapolis, at 8-4, has the manageable schedule, while Cincinnati has a home game with Pittsburgh in a race where both teams are 7-5. So for now, I’ll play it safe in this conference against the board. I can only roll the dice with so many projections and that’s all in the NFC right now.

AFC East: New England
AFC North: Baltimore
AFC South: Houston
AFC West: Denver
Wild-Cards: Indianapolis, Cincinnati
1st-Round Byes: Houston (1), Baltimore (2)
1st-Round Matchups: (6)Cincinnati at (3) New England, (5)Indianapolis at (4)Denver

NFL Week 2 Recap: NFC West Looks Tough

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NFL Week 2 is in the books, and if the early returns mean anything, the NFC West is shaping up to be a block of a division. San Francisco continued its strong start with a win over Detroit, as the 49ers controlled the action in the trenches on both sides of the ball. That’s two straight wins over fellow NFC playoff teams from last year where Frisco has simply outhit their opponent.

But San Francisco playing good physical football is no surprise. Arizona is also 2-0, having overwhelmed the New England offensive line in Foxboro. Calais Campbell had two sacks in leading a defensive front that kept after Tom Brady most of the day. Arizona has good defensive talent up front and playmaking corner Patrick Peterson had an interception. How many games the Cardinals can win with Kevin Kolb is a significant question—he was unspectacular, if mistake-free on Sunday—but there’s no question that Ken Wisenhunt’s team has found a defensive identity and is going to run with it.

Then we come to Seattle, whose narrow Week 1 loss in Arizona looks considerably better after this week’s results. Then consider the Seahawks completely dismantled Dallas in a 27-7 home win. Seattle ran the ball with Marshawn Lynch and stopped Dallas from doing the same with Demarco Murray, while Russell Wilson showed he can manage a win in that kind of situation. Seattle, Arizona and San Francisco all have the looks of teams that will be pushing for the playoffs to the end, and now even St. Louis doesn’t look like an easy out. The Rams got a 300-yard passing game from Sam Bradford and rallied from 15 points down to beat Washington. St. Louis’ one loss, to Detroit in Week 1 on the road, came on a touchdown in the closing seconds. I’m not saying the Rams look like a playoff team, but I am saying that Jeff Fischer appears to have this franchise again giving a professional effort each time out.

And a few more thoughts on a division-by-division basis….

NFC EAST: Can we now officially stop overreacting to each game Dallas plays? After their opening night win in New York, it was clear they had figured everything out and were a Super Bowl contender. After Week 2 in Seattle it’s clear they are schizophrenic. The Cowboys, and by extension Tony Romo, are what they are. They’re capable of looking extremely good and also tossing a major clunker. Losing to Seattle on the road per se is no shame, but being humiliated the way they were is. And it was again apparent that Romo is not going to play elite-level football unless Murray is running the ball effectively. Which basically means Romo is not an elite-level quarterback and we should stop expecting him to become one.

NFC NORTH: Green Bay stepped up and showed they could hit in Thursday night’s 23-10 win over the Chicago Bears. Mike McCarthy committed to the run early and often and Cedric Benson produced 81 yards on 20 carries. And Clay Matthews, with 3.5 sacks, has the look of a player who’s going to have the kind of defensive run this season that Aaron Rodgers had at quarterback last year. I’ve got Matthews penciled in as the early frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year.

NFC SOUTH:  I’m going to guess a lot of you have read your share about the problems of New Orleans in their loss to Carolina, so I won’t rehash that here when I agree with the conventional media wisdom. What I do want to look at is the Tampa Bay defensive line. Eli Manning threw for 510 yards against this defense, and the Bucs did not register a single sack—in fact, rarely even pressured Eli. Given that the front four has to be the cornerstone of this defense, that’s a huge problem. Give credit to Tampa Bay for playing last year’s champs tough on the road in a game New York was desperate for, but if the defensive front gives Greg Schiano anything, we’re talking about a Tampa win.

AFC EAST: I’m not sure what to make of the New England loss right now. The offensive line, which looked good in Tennessee, couldn’t protect Brady on Sunday, but Stevan Ridley still had a respectable 71 yards on 18 carries. With everyone in this division at 1-1, the Patriots have time to figure themselves out.

AFC NORTH: Cincinnati’s got big problems in the secondary. I could overlook the torching they took at the hands of Joe Flacco and Baltimore in the Monday night opener. But letting Cleveland’s Brandon Weeden carve you up to the tune of 26/37 for 332 yards and no interceptions? Cincinnati escaped with the 34-27 win, but Marvin Lewis has got to be supremely concerned with his pass coverage.

AFC SOUTH: What’s happened to the Tennessee running game? It was non-existent in Week 1 against New England and then on Sunday in San Diego. Neither defense reminds anyone of San Francisco, especially when it comes to playing physical in the trenches and the Titans’ offensive line with Chris Johnson behind it should have been able to produce. Instead, it’s as though the rush offense disappeared into thin air. And at 0-2, the Titans look ready to do the same.

AFC WEST: A division that looked like a balanced four-team race might already be down to Denver & San Diego. There’s just a huge amount of work to do in both Oakland and Kansas City. The Raiders have got to get Darren McFadden involved in the offense more, and while I expected their pass defense to be poor, I wasn’t expecting them to be carved by Ryan Tannehill in Miami. As for the Chiefs, I thought they were set to be an above-average team this year, but after getting blown out in Buffalo, it might be time to run screaming from that pick.