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NFL Week 2 Moneylines

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The NFL Week 2 moneylines are listed below, in sequential order based on TV time slot. There’s also some picks you can confidently bet against, as TheSportsNotebook takes its crack at picking the games.

For new readers, not familiar with the moneyline, it’s simply the odds on a team winning the game straight-up, no point spread involved. Those odds are expressed in $100 increments. If you bet Denver as a (-750) favorite over Kansas City, you need to lay out $750 to get a hundred bucks back (on top of your original bet of course). If you take the Chiefs at (+600) you need only bet a $100 to multiply your profit sixfold. The difference in the moneylines, the -750 to +600 spread, reflects the house advantage that exists on all bets.

I was (-375) in Week One. I had the Miami and Tennessee upsets, but got popped on the losses by St. Louis and New Orleans, and then just in general fell in with the rash of upsets that marked Week 1. If you see my pick as “Pass” on a game that seems to have a sure winner, I learned the hard way last year that it only takes one big favorite (i.e., Denver, which I’m passing on) to lose and you’re set in a deep hole. My approach this year is going to be avoid the games where you have to get outside the (-300) range to take the favorite.

Las VegasTHURSDAY NIGHT
Pittsburgh (+130) Baltimore (-150): Pittsburgh
I was giving the Steelers a slight edge in the AFC North as it was, and would have picked them to win this game. I’m almost wondering if the Ray Rice saga isn’t going to briefly spin in Baltimore’s favor though, with a “rally the troops” mindset as players just want to play football. Even so, I’m sticking with the Steelers at the underdog price.

SUNDAY EARLY
Detroit (+130) Carolina (-140): Carolina
Jacksonville (+225) Washington (-255): Pass
Dallas (+175) Tennessee (-195): Tennessee
New England (-155) Minnesota (+140): New England
New Orleans (-270) Cleveland (+240): New Orleans
Atlanta (+220) Cincinnati (-245): Atlanta
Miami (-110) Buffalo (-110): Miami
Arizona (-105) NY Giants (-115): Arizona
I haven’t seen the official TV listings yet, but I’m assuming the games that will go to most of the country will be New England-Minnesota on CBS and Atlanta-Cincinnati on Fox.

SUNDAY LATE
St. Louis (+225) Tampa Bay (-255): Tampa Bay
Seattle (-250) San Diego (+220): Seattle
Houston (-140) Oakland (+130): Oakland
NY Jets (+340) Green Bay (-395): Pass
Kansas City (+600) Denver (-750): Pass
It was tough to pass on the Packers, even at that price. I can’t see them losing a game that’s close to must-win at home. But who knows, maybe this is the year Green Bay comes back to the pack, no pun intended. And a loss at (-395) is just too stiff.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Chicago (+265) San Francisco (-300): Pass
The price tag rule is the primary reason for the pass, but I really do look for Jay Cutler to have a strong bounceback game. I’m a Colin Kaepernick believer and think he can step up his game this year to compensate for a defense that will be weakened until they get players back midseason. This game is a spot where Colin has to step up.

MONDAY NIGHT
Philadelphia (+150) Indianapolis (-165): Indianapolis
I’m in a pool with six other guys were we picked the Over/Under wins on all 32 teams. These two teams, along with the Saints, were the only ones where the unanimous pick was “Over”. It was modest number, 9 for Philadelphia and 9.5 for Indianapolis. This is the Monday Night showdown game.

 

NFL Week 1 Moneylines

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It’s time for another season of picking NFL games against the moneyline, where you pick straight-up with odds rather than against the spread. What follows are the NFL Week 1 moneylines, my picks and some brief comments.

For those not familiar with moneyline wagering, the reason the odds are different for each team is to reflect the house advantage—instead of paying 10 percent on losing bets, as you do when betting ATS, you instead just have to lay out a little more when playing the favorite. The moneylines reflect $100 increments. If you bet $100 on the Colts on Sunday night you get $290 in return (on top of your original hundred). If you want the Broncos though, the (-350) is the amount you need to bet in order to turn a profit of a $100.

Finally, a disclaimer—the team I pick is not necessarily the one I think will win the game, even though that is the point of moneyline betting and in most cases, it does reflect my thinking. But when I did this last year, I dug myself an early hole on a handful of losses with big favorites. It’s tough to come back from losing with a team as (-300) or bigger. So unless I’m really confident, I’m going to play it safe, and that includes passing on games where the moneylines are huge.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Green Bay (+210) Seattle (-255): Green Bay
Comment: This is an example of what I was talking about. I suspect the Seahawks will win, but think this one is going to be close, and while I’m willing to live with an early (-100) hole if the Packers lose, I don’t want to take a (-255) bite before we get into Sunday.

Las VegasSUNDAY EARLY
New Orleans (-160) Atlanta (+135): New Orleans
Minnesota (+150)  St. Louis (-175): St. Louis
Cleveland (+250) Pittsburgh (-300): Pass
Jacksonville (+430) Philadelphia (-550): Pass
Oakland (+210) NY Jets (-255): Oakland
Cincinnati (+100) Baltimore (-120): Baltimore
Buffalo (+250) Chicago (-305): Chicago
Washington (+130) Houston (-150): Washington
Tennessee (+165) Kansas City (-195): Tennessee
New England (-220) Miami (+185): Miami
Comment: I find the Patriots-Dolphins line surprising. Miami beat New England outright last December in South Beach and covered the spread against the Pats in Miami in 2012. I really do lean Miami to win straight up. By no means do I think this is going to be a changing of the guard year in the AFC East, but this particular matchup at this particular venue works well for the Fish.

SUNDAY LATE
Carolina (+110) Tampa Bay (-130): Carolina
San Francisco (-220) Dallas (+185): San Francisco
Comment: The Carolina-Tampa Bay line has to be the most surprising of Week 1. Carolina is getting so little respect that they’re an underdog at Tampa? I guess I should be the last one to talk because I picked Lovie’s Bucs to sneak into the playoffs, while the Panther missed. But there’s a difference between taking a flyer on a risky playoff pick 17 weeks in advance and actually letting that reflected in the betting odds before Tampa Bay has done anything in the field. That’s why my pick in this game contradicts my season-long playoff predictions.

SUNDAY PRIME-TIME
Indianapolis (+290) Denver (-350): Indianapolis
Comment: The same note as the Packer-Seahawk game, but even stronger—didn’t the Colts actually beat the Broncos head-to-head last year? Didn’t Indy win on the road in San Francisco and also beat Seattle? I understand last year’s Colts-Broncos game was at Indianapolis, and all of the above games were early in the season. If this line were Denver (-150) I’d have played the favorite. But not at these prices.

MONDAY NIGHT
NY Giants (+220) Detroit (-265): NY Giants
San Diego (+145) Arizona (-170): San Diego
Comment: Just playing it safe with the underdogs on a couple games that are probably close either way. This game is a nice early test for the Lions—if they play up to their talent level, they win easy. But how often has Detroit done that in recent years?